The Black Sea trade vector is demonstrating exceptional dynamics, turning the Middle East into a key platform for the large-scale export of domestic crop surpluses.
According to current data from the Federal Center for Assessment of Safety and Quality of Agricultural Products, in the first seven months of 2026, Russia shipped an unprecedented 6.7 million tons of grain and grain products to Turkey.
This figure exceeded the volumes for the same period last year by 67%.
Tectonic Shift: A Doubling of Wheat and a Dimensional Increase in Forage
A detailed analysis of the supply structure for January–July reveals a large-scale expansion across all major agricultural crops:
Wheat – net exports doubled, reaching 3.2 million tons. Durum wheat was a unique driver for the segment: shipments increased almost sevenfold, from a conservative 31,200 tons last year to 211,200 tons this season.
Corn and barley demonstrated similar growth. Corn exports tripled (to 940,000 tons), while barley exports increased fivefold, reaching 330,000 tons.
Pulses increased by 29% (to 387,000 tons), thanks to a threefold increase in demand for lentils (86,000 tons) and a 36% increase in pea sales (to 204,000 tons).
By-products also maintained their strong performance. Although wheat bran shipments declined slightly (by 13% to 817,000 tons), this volume still exceeded historical levels for all previous years.
Corn bran sales increased by 43%, while sunflower meal sales increased by 10%. In the oilcake segment, exporters successfully sold 38,000 tons of rapeseed and 36,000 tons of sunflower seed cakes.
Anatolia’s Climate Swings: From Drought to Forage Surplus
The fundamental reason for the record imports was the prolonged drought cycle that paralyzed Turkish fields last season.
A severe moisture deficit plunged the republic’s domestic wheat harvest to a critical 16.8 million tons, forcing Ankara to urgently lift import restrictions in March 2026.
Russian traders immediately flooded the newly opened market thanks to attractive prices and the ultra-short logistics route across the Black Sea.
An additional impetus for the surge in imports in the first half of the year was companies’ desire to close maximum volumes under old contracts before Turkey reinstates protective barriers amid new, optimistic harvest prospects.
However, the new agricultural year is preparing a sharp reversal for the market.
In the 2026/27 season, climatic conditions in Turkey have given way to abundant rainfall, guaranteeing the country record-breaking production: the barley harvest is forecast to jump by 73% to 8.8 million tons.
However, prolonged rainfall in May and June delayed the start of the local harvest by three weeks.
For Russian suppliers, this has twofold consequences: on the one hand, excess moisture in southern Turkey has damaged the quality of local grain, increasing the share of feed and maintaining a shortage of high-quality milling wheat.
On the other hand, drought in central Anatolia has forced Turkish farmers to reduce corn acreage by 10%, which will lead to high demand for imported feed.
The stability of Turkish purchases is also supported by its status as a major global flour milling hub.
Having closed its domestic balance, the country officially lifted the flour export ban, which had been in effect since March 2025, requiring the uninterrupted use of processing capacity with imported raw materials.
New Phytosanitary Barrier: Smut Taboo
The main strategic risk for domestic exporters emerged in August.
Effective August 4, 2026, Turkey introduced uncompromising phytosanitary standards, declaring five key wheat smut diseases (including Tilletia indica and Tilletia controversa) as completely prohibited pathogens.
The presence of spores will now be strictly checked by Turkish laboratories, and if the slightest infection is detected, the entire ship’s shipment will be subject to a total import ban.
