Global trading platforms recorded a sharp jump in the price of milling wheat.
The main driver of the upward trend was the prolonged restriction of shipping in the Azov-Black Sea basin, which resulted in a serious shortage of raw materials for key Black Sea exporters.
Experts emphasize that the global market is facing a classic «supply shock,» which international exchanges can no longer ignore.
Shift in Logistics Vectors and FOB Dynamics
For a long time, global prices remained relatively stable due to good harvest expectations in several macroregions, despite drought in the US and declining yields in the EU.
However, the current logistics crisis has forced traders to reassess the actual volumes of available grain.
Baltic Region:
Due to the effective closure of southern port corridors, the main export flows of Russian wheat have reoriented to the Baltic.
According to analytical agencies, the price of a ton of high-protein wheat (12.5%) FOB Vysotsk soared by $15, reaching $263 per ton, compared to $248 the previous week.
Black Sea Basin:
Due to restricted navigation, nominal prices at the port of Novorossiysk have stabilized at $210–212 per ton for wheat and around $180 per ton for barley.
The resulting spread between the southern and northern routes ($30–40 per ton) clearly reflects the risks and rising freight costs.
At the same time, analysts note that the Baltic Sea ports do not physically have sufficient warehouse capacity to fully replace the deep-water ports of the Krasnodar Territory and create a full-fledged basis for long-term contracts.
Reaction of Foreign Cash Markets
Foreign exchanges demonstrated a mirror image of growth.
The US and French cash markets simultaneously gained $18 per ton. As a result, American grain broke the psychological barrier of $300 per ton, while French grain stabilized at $290 per ton.
Further developments directly depend on the operation of port infrastructure in southern Russia.
If restrictions in the Black Sea persist, the current surge will only be the beginning of a long-term rally on commodity exchanges.
Otherwise, given rising oil prices and macroeconomic factors in the Persian Gulf, the potential for price growth will be exhausted in the coming weeks.
