Russian wheat exports saw a sharp decline in the first quarter of the 2026/27 agricultural season.
The figures recorded are the lowest in 16 years.
Analysts report a critical drop in shipments from the Azov-Black Sea basin, threatening the stability of global grain supply chains.
Dramatic Market Contraction
According to specialized analytical centers, the total volume of Russian wheat exports for the July–September period will amount to just 5.4 million tonnes.
This figure is 53% lower than the volume recorded during the same period last year and 58% below the five-year average.
Such a slump in activity at the start of the agricultural year is unprecedented since the 2010/11 season.
Ukraine has faced similar difficulties; its shipments for the first quarter are projected at 2.6 million tonnes, significantly below the five-year norm of 5.2 million tonnes.
Combined, the region’s two largest suppliers will ship approximately 8 million tonnes to the global market, down from 16.2 million tonnes a year earlier.
Analysts emphasize that global markets have not yet fully grasped the scale of this supply shock.
Black Sea Logistics Deadlock
Infrastructure constraints have been the primary driver of this decline. Shipments from key deep-water ports have come to a near-total standstill.
For instance, between September 1 and 10 of this year, there was no grain handling at the ports of Novorossiysk, Azov, and Taman—facilities that accounted for the lion’s share of exports just a year ago.
The total number of active ports has dropped from 36 to 9.
The restoration of safe commercial shipping is tied to the global political climate, making the prospects for normalization uncertain. Experts note that current logistical risks cannot be resolved through localized maritime truces.
Shifting to the Baltic and Railways
With southern routes blocked, agricultural producers are being forced to alter their supply chains.
The brunt of the load has fallen on the Russian Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Vysotsk; in September, they emerged as leaders in grain shipment volumes, despite having played no role in this process a year earlier.
Astrakhan is also operating steadily.
Despite some increase in rail shipments, these alternative routes can compensate for only a small fraction of the lost capacity—amounting to a combined total of up to 1.3 million tons of grain per month.
Analysts have revised their September forecast to 2 million tons, accounting for overland routes; however, this does not fundamentally alter the crisis situation facing the market in the first quarter.
To fully restore exports, the market requires reliable, high-capacity deep-water corridors.
