In September 2026, a sustained downward trend emerged in the domestic oilseed market.
Domestic wholesale prices for sunflower oil are plummeting due to a supply-demand imbalance. A sharp drop in raw material costs has been recorded, driven by logistical bottlenecks and a record harvest that is, however, uneven in quality.
Export blockage and logistical bottlenecks
The primary driver behind the decline in sunflower oil prices has been a severe restriction on export opportunities.
Exporters lost key sales channels due to the temporary suspension of shipments from major ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin.
Attempts to reroute trade flows to alternative terminals in Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg failed to offset the lost capacity due to strict infrastructure limitations.
Experts estimate that total export volume fell by 20–40% year-on-year in August, totaling just 0.3–0.4 million tonnes.
The forecast for September is even more pessimistic; analysts expect a further drop to 0.2–0.3 million tonnes.
With foreign markets blocked, processors have been forced to redirect unsold volumes to the domestic market, resulting in a supply surplus and an inevitable price collapse.
Divergent analytical estimates
Leading analytical agencies differ in their assessments of the scale of the price drop, yet they all agree that the situation is alarming.
According to analytical agencies, the average domestic market price for a tonne of sunflower oil fell to 85.7 thousand rubles in mid-September. This represents a 9.8% decrease compared to the previous week. The decline over the past two months stands at 16%.
Some analysts offer an even bleaker assessment. Experts recorded a drop in the price of unrefined oil (including VAT) to 79,000 rubles per tonne as of September 20.
Year-on-year, this represents a 15% decline; wholesale prices have plummeted by a quarter—from 104,000 rubles—over the last two months.
The sector is currently actively seeking new sales channels for both oil and meal.
Record harvests vs. quality issues
The current crisis is compounded by the fact that Russia expects a historic record harvest of oilseeds in the 2026 season—up to 36.4 million tonnes.
The primary growth is driven by sunflower seeds (with a USDA forecast of 21 million tonnes, up 20%) and rapeseed (7 million tonnes, up 27%). However, this massive volume does not guarantee high profit margins.
The quality of the sunflower crop harvested this year is rated as poor.
Adverse weather conditions and a forced shift toward domestic seed stocks have led to a widespread prevalence of low-quality produce with critically low oil content.
The processors’ debt trap
Despite obvious inventory gluts and falling profitability, domestic oil extraction plants cannot simply opt to cut production volumes.
Most large and medium-sized enterprises within agricultural holdings are heavily indebted.
Processors require a steady cash flow to service bank obligations and maintain operational liquidity.
Consequently, plants continue to process raw materials at previous volumes, exacerbating the domestic market surplus and prolonging the crisis.
