India firmly maintains its status as a key driver of the global lentil market.
New Delhi’s influence on global price formation and trade flows is intensifying in the 2026/27 season, driven by strict government regulation and the specific nature of domestic consumption.
Structural Demand Factors
Consistently high demand for lentils (locally known as «masoor») in India is driven by long-term economic and demographic factors.
For the world’s largest vegetarian population, pulses serve as a staple and the most affordable source of protein. The country’s retail market for these products already exceeds $77 billion.
The local agricultural sector is struggling to keep pace with rapid urbanization and population growth, necessitating large-scale foreign purchases to offset the domestic deficit.
High crop substitutability acts as an additional driver: if chickpea or pigeon pea harvests fall short, processing plants and end consumers quickly switch to cheaper imported lentils.
Import Forecasts for the 2026/27 Season
An uneven summer monsoon in 2026 negatively impacted the acreage for the *Kharif* (summer) pulse harvest.
Despite a stable domestic *Rabi* (winter) harvest (approximately 1.99 million tonnes), analysts forecast a sharp increase in foreign purchases during the second half of the cycle.
India is expected to increase its lentil imports to 1.6 million tonnes by the end of the current marketing year. This figure comes very close to the all-time high of 1.68 million tonnes recorded in the 2023/24 season.
Overall, the country’s total imports of all pulse crops during this period will exceed the 6-million-tonne mark.
Trends by Variety
Competition is intensifying in the market for red lentils, which India imports as a raw material for the traditional dish *masoor dal*.
Canada and Australia are the primary suppliers. Australian exporters are aggressively undercutting prices—leveraging excellent domestic harvest forecasts (2.25–3 million tonnes)—which significantly squeezes profit margins for pure-play suppliers.
In contrast, the large green lentil sector is demonstrating high profitability per tonne.
Global prices remain at peak levels due to a sharp drop in production in Canada (down 36%) and the US (down 42%), coupled with a simultaneous shortage of pigeon peas in India.
However, quality remains a critical factor for exporters of green varieties: grain discoloration or spotting caused by harvest-time rains threatens to slash purchase prices offered by Indian buyers by as much as 30–40%.
Regulation and Exporter Risks
The Indian market is highly sensitive to swift policy decisions made by regulators in New Delhi.
The government seeks to balance curbing food inflation with protecting local farmers through the Minimum Support Price (MSP) mechanism and market interventions by the state-run agency NAFED.
The current base duty stands at 10%, though authorities reserve the right to adjust it within a range of 0% to 30%, depending on weather conditions and crop yields.
International traders are advised to lock in supply terms on a CFR or CIF basis (to an Indian port) so that the burden of any domestic fiscal changes falls on local buyers. Amid the instability of traditional leaders, Russia is steadily strengthening its market position, asserting itself as a major new player by expanding its cultivated areas.
