Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has presented an updated forecast for the country’s socio-economic development for 2027 and the planning period of 2028–2029.
The agency has adjusted its expectations regarding the performance of the agro-industrial complex, adopting a moderately conservative approach to assessing key industry indicators amidst changing climatic factors.
Analysts note that the projected scenarios reflect the sector’s high degree of resilience and its capacity for recovery, even following the climate-related shocks of the current season.
Adjustment of current indicators and the baseline scenario
According to Ministry data, agricultural output for the year is expected to decline by 1.2% compared to 2025 levels due to adverse weather conditions in several regions.
At the same time, the agency has improved its assessment of the sector’s performance; the previously projected decline was 1.4%.
The baseline scenario anticipates a steady recovery trend over the medium term.
The agricultural sector is projected to grow by 1.9% next year, 2.5% in 2028, and 2.9% in 2029. By 2029, cumulative production growth is expected to reach 6.2% relative to 2025.
However, a stress (conservative) scenario allows for the possibility that sectoral production could temporarily contract by 3.8% next year, before recovering with growth of 1.6% and 3.7% in the subsequent two years.
Crop production dynamics: harvests and trends
In the crop production sector, the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops remains a key indicator. The harvest for the current season is projected at 141.8 million tonnes; the agency plans to increase the total yield to 165 million tonnes by 2029, representing a substantial 16.9% increase over 2025 levels.
Regarding other crops, the ministry forecasts sugar beet production to rise to 49.5 million tonnes this year and to 54.2 million tonnes by 2029.
Total sunflower production is expected to fall to 17.2 million tonnes, although industry analysts offer more optimistic estimates.
Vegetable production is set to reach 14.4 million tonnes by 2029, while potato production will decrease to 19 million tonnes.
Development trajectory of the livestock sector
Modernization and state support will bolster the livestock industry: by 2029, livestock and poultry output will rise to 17.8 million tonnes, and raw milk production will increase to 35.3 million tonnes.
Macroeconomic context and domestic demand
Domestic consumer demand—projected to grow by 4.1%—will remain the primary driver of economic growth, while inflation is expected to return to the 4% target by the end of next year.
