The current harvest campaign is showing highly uneven progress across key areas.
Harvesting of the primary oilseed crop is lagging significantly behind last year’s schedule. There is a delay of about two weeks, caused by the late start to spring sowing.
To date, only about 15–17% of the planned acreage has been harvested.
However, the slow pace is being offset by a substantial improvement in quality metrics. Average field productivity has risen by nearly a third, reaching 1.8 tonnes per hectare.
The southern regions are showing the most marked gains in efficiency.
For instance, the Rostov region is recording yields of over 2.6 tonnes per hectare—a figure that far exceeds the results of last season’s poor harvest. Central regions are also showing a positive trend, with productivity increasing by an average of 0.4 tonnes per hectare.
Total sunflower production could reach a record 20–21 million tonnes.
Rapid Rapeseed Growth and Soybean Harvesting Specifics
In contrast to the sunflower situation, the rapeseed harvest is running ahead of last year’s schedule by 25%. Farmers have already threshed about 60% of the acreage, adding over 4.5 million tonnes of oilseeds to their stocks.
At the same time, the average yield per hectare has dipped slightly, settling at 2.0 tonnes. Total rapeseed production is forecast to reach between 6.5 and 7 million tonnes.
The soybean sector is showing stable yields comparable to last year—around 2.1 tonnes per hectare. So far, just over 20% of the acreage has been harvested, with total output exceeding 2 million tonnes. However, due to a reduction in harvested acreage, the final soybean harvest could decline by approximately 13% to 24%.
Experts estimate the total harvest potential for all key oilseed crops at between 35 and 38 million tonnes, confirming the positive momentum of the crop production sector.
Infrastructure Risks and Processing Barriers
Despite optimistic forecasts for total output and high yields, the processing sector faces significant infrastructure challenges.
A surplus of raw materials on the domestic market, coupled with limited export opportunities, threatens to become the season’s primary issue.
Logistical difficulties in the Azov-Black Sea basin, combined with the impact of export duties, could place an excessive burden on domestic processing facilities.
Analysts warn of the risk that vast quantities of raw materials—specifically 4 to 5 million tonnes of sunflower seeds—may go unprocessed.
The situation is exacerbated by difficulties in selling by-products, particularly high-protein meal; a buildup of unsold stocks could force major processing plants to halt operations.
Logistical barriers also affect the rapeseed sector, where the volume of unprocessed raw material could reach up to one million tonnes.
In this context, the soybean sector appears the most stable, with carryover stocks raising no serious concerns among analysts.
Maintaining full stability across the agro-industrial complex will require a swift and substantial adjustment of export destinations, as well as the establishment of new logistical routes.
