The rise in wheat prices leads to the loss of its competitiveness

Russian wheat has been rising in price for several months in a row, updating historical records.

Over the past week the price of wheat of the 3rd and 4th classes has grown by 400 rubles, to 15,000 rubles. per ton.

Wheat with 12.5% ​​protein in deep-water ports rose in price to 17.8 — 18.4 thousand rubles. per ton (last week 16.9 — 17.6 thousand rubles per ton).

On world markets, Russian wheat is traded at $ 248 per ton (+ $ 9).

Wheat for December delivery rose to $ 231 (+ 5.7%) on the Chicago Stock Exchange, the highest since November 2014.

Grain consumers (millers, bakers, livestock breeders) are seriously concerned about the increase in prices for crops.

They already found themselves in a very difficult situation with rising prices for fertilizers, seeds, fuel, energy, etc.

And if wheat at a high price is added to this list, then some enterprises will simply be forced to leave the market.

And the final product, in the price of which, among other things, will include the cost of purchasing masks, gloves, antiseptics, on the counter will cost much more than the current level.

Dissatisfied market participants are likely to write to the Ministry of Agriculture demanding to take measures on price regulation.

But the Ministry of Agriculture is still limited to continuing to use the quota method, which is likely to be expected in 2021.

And this information encourages importers and exporters to sell as much as possible, which also increases demand and price, respectively.

Although, according to analysts, the increase in grain exports since the beginning of the season amounted to only 1%.


A high harvest (and a record grain harvest will be harvested in Russia) does not in itself guarantee lower prices.

They are under pressure from the growing national currency and increased demand from large importers, first of all, Pakistan.

This year the country will import 1.15 million tons of wheat, of which 930 thousand tons are Russian, at $ 245 — $ 250 per ton FOB.

The information on the expected decrease in the harvest in 2021 in Russia and in the United States due to the autumn drought began to significantly influence the situation with prices.

According to experts, the price of wheat will continue to grow against the background of the above-mentioned factors for some time, but then we will see its stabilization and, possibly, even a fall.

Traders will carry out purchases under contracts and the excitement will subside.

But it is unlikely that the expectation of a decrease in the price of Russian wheat will calm importers who are beginning to refuse to purchase it due to the high price.

Australia is entering the market and will compete with Russia in Southeast Asia.

And the proposals of such countries as Germany, France, the Baltic countries are $ 5 — 7 lower than those offered by Russian exporters.

Meanwhile, shipments in the ports of Novorossiysk last week decreased by 32.9% versus the previous week and 16.4% versus the same period last year.

At the same time, there are very few proposals from the south for the delivery of auto transport to ports, and the railway is fully scheduled for October and November.

It is almost impossible to apply for Tuapse and Novorossiysk.