Against the backdrop of a snowy winter, the forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia this year has been increased from 76.8 to 77.7 million tons.
Such data are provided by the analytical center SovEkon. The well-formed snow cover in January, which protected the soil from freezing, is one of the few reasons for joy for the winter crops sown at the end of last year.
According to statistics, at the end of 2020, a record for all time area was sown with winter crops: 19.5 million hectares, which is a whole million more than a year earlier.
However, if we talk about the state of crops, then it is now the worst in the entire history of observations (about 20 years). Of the 19.5 million hectares sown with grain, about 4 million hectares are classified by the same SovEkon as “bad crops”, the hope for the yield of which is very doubtful. Moreover, 2.6 million hectares are those seedlings that did not germinate at all and therefore are unlikely to bring at least one grain.
As a result, an extra million hectares does not save: the overall forecast for the winter crop in 2021 is worse than in previous years. According to the analysis, there is a record number of bad crops (about 22%), and no more than half of good crops (while the norm is 65-70%).
Why did trouble happen to winter crops?
First of all, due to insufficient soil moisture. In the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories (the main «granaries» of the country), winter crops had to be sown in practically dry land. Due to the lack of rains, sowing was postponed until the last, but this did little: the soil was never saturated with moisture deeper than 30-40 cm.
Of course, the fact that a lot of snow fell in January before the 20-degree frost hit is good news — otherwise, there would be little left of winter crops. But the overall situation is not yet encouraging.
At the same time, the defining period for the yield of winter crops is still not autumn, but the period from April to June, which is still ahead. If the weather during this period of the year is perfect, then Russia can even harvest a record harvest.
But if there are late frosts or a lack of rain again, the situation threatens to become completely sad.
How does the situation with winter crops affect the cost of a ton of wheat?
In Russia and in the world, there is anxiety about what is happening to the crops. And this is one of the factors that so far keeps the price of wheat at a high level, despite all the imposed duties and quotas.
After all, the grain market “lives for the future” — and if in the coming year there is a wheat crop failure in Russia, it will backfire with a serious deficit. And, accordingly, maintaining a high price.
