Analysis of shipments on February 15-21 according to the analytical platform Logistic OS .
Export duties on the main types of grain have begun to apply in Russia. Despite this, agrarians do not significantly reduce the rate of shipments. Contracts are concluded with duties included, because prices on the domestic market are falling.
From February 15 to February 21, 750 289 tons were exported through the ports of Russia. cereals, including wheat 634 940 tons.
Compared to the previous week, the decline in turnover was 19%, and by the same week of 2020, the volume of shipments increased by 16%.
In the center of Russia, wheat prices fell to 14 000 rubles / ton, excluding VAT from processors. There are contracts concluded at 13 000 rubles / ton under a duty of 50 euros.
This is despite the fact that in October last year the cost of a ton of wheat reached 18 000 rubles.
Turkey remains the main importing country with a volume of 233 678 tons ((an increase over the same period last year + 47%)).
Egypt still holds the second place in the ranking with a shipment volume of 127 856 tons (+ 66% y-o-y).
In general, since the beginning of the 2020/21 season, the TOP-3 largest importers have not changed: Egypt, Turkey, Iran.
2020/2021 agricultural year:
But Egypt ousted Turkey from the first place, having imported 7,121 thousand tons of grain since the beginning of the season. (+ 54.8% to the 2019/20 season).
At the same time, Turkey reduced the volume of shipments by — 2.5%: 6 692 thousand tons.
Iran, on the other hand, remained at a turnover almost similar to the previous agricultural year: 2 372 thousand tons.
2019/2020 agricultural year:
Meanwhile, according to Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute of Agrarian Market, the profit lost by farmers as a result of the introduction of duties will amount to more than $ 1.55 billion.
With an estimated price at the start of a new harvest of $ 250 per ton of wheat and a yield of 77 million tonnes, the loss will amount to $ 1.33 billion.
For barley at a price of $ 215 per ton and a yield of 19.5 million tons — «minus» $ 95 million.
For corn at a price of $ 225 per ton, losses may amount to $ 126 million.
«When we set the export duty, wheat prices fall across the country. Thus, the revenue of all grain producers is reduced, regardless of who and where they sell their crops,» Rylko explained.
Another unclear question is how exporters will conclude contracts after the change in the size of the duty becomes weekly, since contracts are concluded for a much longer period.
The analysis was carried out on the basis of the application Ratings
