Currently, the export of grain from Russia is almost at zero. But everything may change in the summer.
Rusagrotrans has further lowered the forecast for the volume of grain exports in April this year.
Now this value is 1.7 million tons, including 0.75 million tons of wheat, 0.7 million tons of barley, 0.25 million tons of corn.
The values were approximately the same in March.
And therefore, according to Igor Pavensky, head of the analytical center of Rusagrotrans, there is every reason to believe that exports will remain at the same low level in May as well.
But in June the situation with grain export may already recover, experts say.
First, export duties will be adjusted .
Now for the export of 1 ton of wheat you have to pay a duty of 50 euros. From June the duty will become floating and may be significantly reduced.
Secondly, the low activity of exporters is due to the fact that demand has fallen on the global market.
Most of the countries that wanted to buy grain in Russia did so in January-February, before the introduction of duties.
And today these countries (for example, Egypt) are preparing to harvest themselves.
Finally, everyone is waiting for changes in the price of Russian wheat ahead of the new harvest.
Now exporters have reduced their activities to almost zero, including the high cost of purchasing grain from producers.
With a duty of $ 59 per ton, almost no one is ready to buy wheat.
There are forecasts that in the next six months (due to a new harvest and a change in the mechanism of duties), the duty may be reduced to $ 21, for example, at a price of $ 230 per ton of grain.
That is, almost twice. All market participants are now waiting for it.
When will bread fall in price?
“Never in my life. How many times have we passed: wheat was 5-6 rubles, but for bread to fall in price — never. Everything is laid there. And bread rises in price not so much because of grain, but because of energy resources. Gasoline, delivery, transport — everything has risen at times, «- said the head of the Rostov Association of Peasant Farms Alexei Zhdanov.
Thus, whatever the price of grain, Russians do not have to wait for changes in price tags in stores.
The only thing that can be hoped for is that the numbers there will not soon change upwards.
