Sunflower oil has become a product that has risen in retail prices by the maximum value since 2020 (+ 23.8%).
Currently, prices for it have begun to decline in anticipation of the new harvest.
According to experts from the analytical center SovEkon, Russian sunflower harvest this season may become a record (up to 15.9 million tons).
For comparison: the previous record was set in 2019 (15.4 million tons). In 2020, a significantly smaller amount of sunflower was harvested: 13.3 million tons. In general, for oilseeds, Russia has plans to collect up to 22.5 million tons.
According to experts, the increase in gross harvest will be the result of an increase in acreage (up to + 11% against the level of 2020). And their growth, in turn, is directly related to the fact that sunflower oil, as well as raw materials for it, have shown a steady rise in prices for a long time.
For example, a year ago a liter of sunflower oil in stores cost about 92 rubles, now it is at the level of 117 rubles.
Will oil become much cheaper?
At present, a strong tendency towards a decrease in the cost of this product, as well as of oilseeds, is already clearly visible.
Several months ago a ton of sunflower on the world market cost about $ 1.7 thousand per ton, now the price has dropped to $ 1.1 thousand.
The cost of a ton of sunflower oil in Russia has also decreased: in just a month it fell from 53 thousand rubles to 40.9 thousand rubles.
Sunflower oil on the Russian market fell from 118 thousand rubles per ton to 100 thousand.
As the General Director of Rusagro Maxim Basov noted, one of the significant factors driving the rise in prices was dollar inflation.
The second reason is low expectations for the oilseed harvest in the Black Sea region.
Currently prices are starting to decline due to good crop prospects in Russia and Ukraine — the two main exporting countries.
On the eve of a new harvest, world prices are falling, followed by domestic Russian prices.
In addition, prices are being pulled down by falling demand in the world market: Turkey, India and China have reduced their purchases of oil.
Will the cost of oil in stores go down?
As for the reduction in the price of this product in retail, the forecasts here are not too optimistic.
For a full year during the fixed price cap agreement for this product, retailers had to deal with low margins on this product anyway.
According to Sovecon director Andrey Sizov, retail prices should be at least 1.5 times higher so that retail chains can operate profitably.
At the same time, the government has taken a whole range of measures aimed at lowering oil prices.
For example, a duty on sunflower exports with a rate of 50% (at least $ 320 per tonne), which will be in effect until the end of the summer of 2022. And from September it is planned to introduce also a floating duty on the export of oil.
Thus, taking into account the high yield, a lot of oil will remain in the country — and this should make it cheaper.
The main thing is that the producers eventually make a profit and want to update their harvest records next year.
