01-20 July 2021. Analytics of the export market based on the platform Logistic OS .
Russia carries out the most active export shipments in the first half of the agricultural year, especially in the first three months — almost a third of the total volume is exported.
July is coming to an end, bringing disappointing results: from 01 to 20 July, Russian exporters shipped 1.316 thousand tons of grain, of which 965 thousand tons of wheat.
Smaller shipments were last seen in 2017.
Data on current shipments in the ports of Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania, historical data on grain shipments since 2012 can be generated on the basis of the analytical platform Logistic OS.
The system consists of several modules: Line-up, Export Date, Ratings, Ports, Cargoes, Vessels, as well as a large number of reference books.
Users are given the opportunity to use various analytical tools and download data in the format Excel.
When there is a need to obtain comparative data in the form of ratings, then in the «Ratings» module it is necessary to select the country, the type of cargo and the required time interval (in this case, from July 01, 2021 to July 20, 2021.
The resulting diagram shows which grain cargo and in what volume were exported through the seaports of Russia.
Compared to the same period in July 2020, the drop is:
The total volume of cereals — «minus» 48.5%
Wheat — minus 48%
Thus, the preliminary forecast for exports for the current agricultural year has been reduced to 49 million tons, including wheat to 38.5 million tons.
At the same time, experts have fears that it will not be possible to withdraw so much grain, due to the gradually accumulating reserves.
The reason for the drop in export shipments is not only in unfavorable weather conditions in some areas, which will automatically lead to a decrease in harvest and imposed duties, but also to increased competition in the Black Sea grain market, and in a difficult situation with logistics.
First, , the fight against overloads, which began at the time of the crop failure, has led today to the fact that more vehicles and drivers are needed.
The result is an increase in tariffs for grain transportation. Transportation over a short distance (up to 400 km) increased from 700-800 rubles per ton to 1200-1300 rubles per ton.
Secondly — the situation on the railway.
Shipments of a larger volume of grain have not yet begun, and a number of directions are already limited, due to the low turnover of wagons.
Thirdly — dumping by Romanian wheat.
Last week, world prices rose, European prices are rising, and Romanian grain is pushing prices down.
The result is stable failures of Russian wheat in Egyptian tenders.
So far, shipments abroad are very weak, and experts predict that August will not shine with results either.
Considering all the pressure factors, the question is to retain the previously conquered markets.
If you want to learn more about the analytical platform Logistic OS , go to link and get a free 1 month trial access.
