Reason: publication of Rosstat data on sown areas, including the remaining areas of winter wheat.
In general, the area under wheat decreased by 744 thousand hectares.
The bulk of the harvest falls on winter wheat, and its area decreased by 1.3 million hectares (last year, for example, the share of this crop in the harvest was 74%).
In addition, the yield of winter wheat is almost two times higher than that of spring wheat, which also affects the total harvest.
This year, the area of culture has decreased, and a significant part perished.
The forecast for the yield of winter wheat has also been reduced to 28.1 — 28.3 c / ha (last year — 29.8 c / ha).
As a result, analysts estimate the wheat harvest at 79-80 million tons (previously 82.5-83 million tons).
The yield for barley will also be lower: based on data on sown areas and yields, it will amount to 19.3-19.5 million tons. Last year, 20.9 million tons were collected.
To date, about 45% of the expected volumes of cereals and legumes and about 55% of the expected volumes of wheat have been harvested, so there is a possibility of a more accurate analysis of the expected harvest.
The center of Russia and the Volga region, which were severely affected by the drought, have not yet begun harvesting spring crops, therefore, in the process of receiving data from these regions, the forecasts will be adjusted.
But even now, based on the available data, we can speak of a decline in Russia’s export potential.
Wheat: 37-37.5 million tons (previously 40 million tons)
Barley: 5.3-5.5 million tonnes (forecast unchanged)
Total volume: 47.5 million tons (previously 49-50 million tons).
Markets not only in Russia but also abroad have already reacted to the changed forecasts for gross harvest and export potential.
Prices went up.
