The floating export duty will begin to operate from September 1, 2021 to August 31, 2022.
The duty is calculated based on the indicative price of $ 1248.2 / t and will amount to $ 169.9 / t as of September 1, 2021.
The rate will be calculated using the following formula:
Rd = (Pi — Pb) x 0.7
Rd — the rate of export customs duty
Pi — indicative price for 1 ton (arithmetic average of market prices for a month)
Pb is the base export price, which has a value of $ 1000 per ton.
According to most analysts, the duty will have no impact on export volumes. But the reasons are different.
Mikhail Maltsev, head of the Fat and Oil Union:
The duty is incorporated into all commercial marketing strategies of exporters.
Alexander Korbut, Vice President of the Russian Grain Union:
The duty will be transferred by the processors to the purchase price of sunflower
Dmitry Rylko, General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies:
Russia expects a sunflower harvest close to the record 2019, as the sown area has expanded significantly. Together with the export restrictions, this will lead to lower prices.
Russia and Ukraine, being the main world exporters of sunflower oil, expect high rates of gross sunflower harvest, oiliness, etc., which is likely to lead to a decrease in export prices.
FAS USDA (Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture) in mid-July voiced the following forecasts for Russia:
Sunflower production — 16.5 million tons (+ 24% by 2020)
Productivity — 1.74 t / ha (+ 9% by 2020)
Crop area — 9.5 million hectares (+ 14% by 2020)
Export of sunflower oil in the season 2021/22 — 3.75 million tons (+750 thousand tons by 2020).
