According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, by August 23, Russia harvested up to 85 million tons of grain and legumes. This suggests that the harvest in 2021 will generally be high.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, at the moment cereals and legumes have been harvested on an area of 30 million hectares. Average yield is 28 centners per hectare.
Including:
Wheat threshed on 19.9 million hectares, 62.2 million tons harvested, yield 31.3 c / ha.
Barley — 6 million hectares, 15 million tons, 25 kg / ha.
Rapeseed — 0.5 million hectares, 1.1 million tons, 21.5 kg / ha.
Sunflower — 4.2 thousand hectares, 5.9 thousand tons, 14 c / ha.
Soybeans — 2.3 thousand hectares, 3.1 thousand tons, 13.4 c / ha.
Sugar beets — 23 thousand hectares, 0.95 million tons, 414 centners / ha.
Compared to last year, this season is still lagging behind.
Indeed, by August 24, 2020, cereals and legumes were harvested from an area of 27.6 million hectares, and 90.7 million tons of them were harvested.
Will the real harvest be higher than the forecast?
Most likely, everything is heading towards this.
One of the reasons is the very low outlook for wheat. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced it extremely strongly: from 85 million tons to 72.5 million.
However, we see that today the predicted value has almost been reached, while harvesting in many regions of the Russian Federation (for example, in Siberia) has not even begun yet.
According to experts, the reason for the error USDA could be the fact that it used Rosstat data in the formation of the forecast, in which the area sown with winter crops in Russia is 1 million hectares less than the real one.
It was also not taken into account that the areas under the dead winter crops were oversowed by Russian farmers in many cases.
According to the head of the analytical center «Rusagrotrans» Igor Pavensky, it is impossible to be guided by the American pessimistic forecast in the conditions when the harvest in many key regions of Russia turned out to be a record one.
For example, in the south this year there is an absolute record for the harvest, in the central part — the third in terms of volume.
In the Krasnodar Territory, for example, 12.6 million tons of grain were harvested, with an average yield of 60 c / ha (+ 11 c / ha compared to last year).
Thus, the harvest in Russia is expected to be significantly higher than the USDA forecast. According to a number of experts, this could become a factor that will lead to a decrease in the price of wheat.
At present, it has passed the mark of $ 300 per ton.
Over the past 30 years, this has happened only three times: in 2008, 2011 and 2012. The rest of the time, the price averaged 130-180 dollars per ton.
