Food products in Russia will continue to rise in price

The rise in prices for them is almost inevitable in the context of the highest inflation since 2016, which is currently observed.

According to experts, this September annual inflation may reach 6.8%. This is a very high level, which it has not reached over the past 5 years.

June inflation was 6.5%, July — 6.46%. All this suggests that it continues to remain extremely high.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has adjusted the forecast for inflation in Russia for 2021: from 5.2% to 6.2%. But the real figure may turn out to be even higher.

For the rapid growth of inflation, all the conditions are currently in place:

The minimum key rate is 6.5%. At the same time, due to the pandemic, it dropped even lower last year: to 4.25%, which is also a record decline. The lower the key rate, the cheaper the money, the stronger the inflation.

Inflation imports from external markets, where prices for many raw materials and foodstuffs are rising.

Social payments to pensioners and the military, increasing the amount of money in the hands of the population and reducing their real value.

Weakening of the ruble against the dollar and other world currencies.

All this can lead to higher prices for basic food products in the near future, experts say.

For example, the chairman of the Union of Consumers of Russia, Pyotr Shelishch, is convinced of this. In his opinion, high inflation will inevitably pull food prices up, and there is no reason for a decrease in these prices so far.

At the same time, other experts are more optimistic.

Vice-President of the Russian Grain Union Alexander Korbut believes that there should be no serious concerns about the rise in food prices.

“From the point of view of the produced resources and the conformity of production and domestic consumption, I do not observe any reasons for the growth of the producers’ selling prices. The question is how it will be in practice. If you go to the store, you will notice that the prices of some goods have started to rise. For example, eggplant and zucchini. Potatoes have just begun to arrive, selling prices for this product are about 24 rubles / kg — this is not a lot. For bread, I see no reason for an increase in value. ”

The only factor currently working to reduce prices, even if seasonal, is the new harvest.

At the same time, Ekaterina Vlasova, Director of the Department of Macroeconomic Analysis of the Ministry of Economic Development, notes that in the second half of August, the process of cheaper products due to the harvest slowed down, since it depends not only on the pace of harvesting, but also on the schedule for the receipt of products in retail chains.

Most likely, a short-term seasonal decline is the only thing that can be counted on now.

Inflation is not going to subside so far, so a rise in prices, including for food, is inevitable.

At the same time, the government is convinced that they are keeping the situation under control and that inflation will not go beyond the target indicators.