This trend may continue for the next season.
At the last conference of «Agroinvestor» Russian Crop Production — 2021/22, this issue was actively discussed.
It is unlikely that the current situation can be reversed by the expected record sunflower harvests in Russia and Ukraine.
The main conclusion to be drawn based on the current situation is that vegetable oil prices will continue to rise.
Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of the analytical company ProZerno, assumes that the average seasonal prices for rapeseed oil in the port of Rotterdam will rise.
As for soybean oil, according to V. Petrichenko, growth is not expected — prices will remain at the current high level of the last season.
Against the background of high yields, we can observe a slight drop in prices for sunflower oil, but even in this case, it will be significantly higher than the previous eight to nine seasons.
V. Petrichenko announced the following forecast for the harvest of oilseeds:
Total harvest — 22 million tons (2020/21 — 20.2 million tons)
Including:
Sunflower — 14.8 million tonnes (2020/21 — 13.3 million tonnes)
Rapeseed — 2.9 million tons (last season — 2.57 million tons)
Soybean — 4.5 million tons (2020/21 — 4.3 million tons).
Sunflower oil production in 2020/21 reached about 5.18 million tons, export went to 2.7 million tons.
In the 2021/22 season, V. Petrichenko expects production at a level slightly above 6 million tons, while 3.54 million tons will be sold abroad.
Oil flax production, despite the reduction in sowing, will amount to about 1.12 million tons, of which about 800 thousand tons will be exported.
The largest part of Russian production of this product is located beyond the Urals, so China will become the main buyer.
Considering the overall situation in the grain and oilseeds market, as well as the drought in Kazakhstan and the big problems with oilseeds in Canada, Russia has a chance to become the main market maker in the flax and wheat market.
