What are the prospects for the new season for farmers and exporters?
According to preliminary results, despite the difficulties of the current period, the harvest is already showing good results, and by the end of the year it may become a record one.
As of July 14, 2022, Russian farmers harvested 20 million tons, which is a third more than the same period last year (although only 5 million hectares were processed, which is 14% more than July 2021)
A significant increase in the collection is due to high yields: 42.2 c/ha (34.1 c/ha — July 2021).
Wheat harvesting showed especially high growth: 15 million tons (10 million tons — 2021).
The barley harvest is 20% higher than last year’s levels (600 thousand tons).
Prospects for the Russian grain harvest in 2022/23 analysts estimate it as very high: forecasts for the future harvest are constantly growing (total grain harvest 137-139 million tons, wheat about 88-90 million tons).
Sown areas for the 2022/23 harvest were increased by 800 thousand hectares, the weather conditions were generally on the side of Russian farmers: moderate spring frosts and the absence of major droughts.
On the other hand, one cannot fail to note the fact that in terms of acquiring equipment, fertilizers, fuels and lubricants, Russian farmers have not been in the most advantageous situation for the past two years.
What are the prospects for Russian grain exports?
Since the beginning of the agricultural season, Russia has shipped wheat to foreign markets almost twice as much as in the same period in 2021.
At the same time, the number of countries — buyers of Russian grain, also decreased by about half.
Of course, the signing of the Istanbul agreement last week was positive news for exporters, according to which the sanctions regime, which complicated the supply of grain from Russia abroad, can be lifted.
Yes, there were no direct bans on the purchase and transportation of Russian grain, but sanctions were imposed on a number of banks that serviced export operations with grain.
At the same time, concerns about the possibility of deliveries of Russian products to the main consumers (Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh, a number of sub-Saharan African countries, Greece, Cyprus, Malta) remain high.
Against the backdrop of high prospects for the Russian harvest and the signing of an agreement on the export of Ukrainian grain, world wheat prices continued to decline, reaching the level of early February 2022.
Wheat with a protein level of 12.5% in the Black Sea ports fell by $25 to $375 in July.
Domestic prices for wheat also fell: in the Volga region, wheat of the 3rd class fell by 615 rubles. to 14.15 thousand rubles/t, in the South the decrease was 400 rubles. up to 14.45 thousand rubles / t.
In general, grain exports from Russia are preliminary estimated at 56 million tons, wheat — 44 million tons.
