For the first time since last November, over the past week, an upward trend in prices for wheat from Russia was recorded.
Such data is provided by Rusagrotrans.
According to the think tank, there are several reasons why the price could rise (it changed by about $2.5 per ton to $275).
First, potential problems with exports from Russia.
Several companies that previously transported Russian grain decided to withdraw from its market. For example, Cargill and Viterra recently announced this to the Ministry of Agriculture.
This creates the risk of new difficulties with the export of grain. Currently, the Russian Federation is trying to create its own fleet, but this is a matter of several years; in the short term, difficulties are not ruled out that threaten a drop in exports.
In addition, there are doubts about the prospects for extending the Ukrainian grain deal.
The last time the Russian Federation extended it, but only for 2 months. It is believed that this is a political move to help the re-election in May of Erdogan, the president of Turkey — one of the parties to the deal.
If Russia does not want to extend it, Ukrainian grain may also not reach world markets.
Exports ahead of schedule
Despite all the difficulties, so far Russia has maintained export rates, and record ones at that.
For example, in March, about 4.8 million tons of wheat were sent abroad. And this is the maximum since October, when approximately the same result was achieved.
If we talk about grain in general, about 6 million tons were exported in March. This is the record since September 2020.
Export rates are expected to remain high in April as well. Analysts expect that Russia will send about 4.5 million tons of wheat abroad this month.
In general, in the current season, the export potential of the Russian Federation is estimated at 57 million tons of grain, and if flour and legumes are taken into account, then 60 million tons.
At the same time, an export quota of 25.5 million tons is still in effect. And this volume, according to experts, is already contracted by 60%.
Despite the sanctions and the voluntary withdrawal of foreign companies, the problems with freight, ship insurance, and transactions are mostly resolved.
Which countries buy Russian grain?
These are mainly Türkiye, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is these countries that are in the top 5 in terms of purchases of Russian grain.
In addition, Algeria is rapidly approaching them. In the current season, this country has significantly increased the volume of agricultural products purchased in the Russian Federation, which may also turn it into a serious importer in the near future.
