The Ministry of Agriculture recently advised Russian exporters not to sell wheat on foreign markets for less than $240 per ton. But it is not certain that they will succeed.
This recommendation was given after a meeting held at the ministry.
Right during the meeting, one of the participants from the exporters’ side reminded: in March, the department recommended in the same way not to sell cheaper than $260 per ton.
But world prices continue to fall.
For example, now a ton of wheat costs about 9925 rubles per ton. This is a third less than in the same period last year.
On the one hand, the recommendation of the Ministry of Agriculture does not have a mandatory requirement for implementation.
On the other hand, farmers are worried that the ministry may introduce some measures that will force them to comply with this recommendation. For example, to delay the deadlines for passing phytosanitary control.
Will grain prices rise?
Already on July 1, the new season will begin, and some farmers expect that it will bring positive progress.
For example, this week the export duty on grain is reduced, and very significantly: by 37%, or $21 per ton.
This is already a good opportunity for farmers to get more revenue from each batch sold.
In addition, as Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical company ProZerno, noted, prices very often “sink” before the start of the new season.
What they will be in the foreseeable future depends on several factors:
— Egyptian GASC grain tender and its results, which will become clear one of these days.
— The state of winter crops in the USA, it will be known closer to August.
— The level of harvest in the EU and the Russian Federation — about the same time.
— Prospects for a grain deal. As Petrichenko noted, it hits Russia very hard: when it became known that the deal had been extended, Russian exports to Turkey immediately fell by 53%. But there is a fairly high probability that there will be no more renewals, and we will also find out about this closer to August.
At the moment, grain prices are around 238-245 dollars per ton, says Elena Tyurina, director of the analytics department of the Russian Grain Union.
Despite the fact that this price is quite low, shipments are still active: for example, to Indonesia, Egypt, Mozambique.
However, the established price levels are not comfortable enough for farmers, and not only in Russia, but also in other countries, including the EU, since the cost of production has recently increased significantly.
And if so, then the rise in prices at the beginning of the new season is not ruled out, experts say.
