It is planned that the volume of wheat exports this season can reach 49 million tons, which is a record value in recent years.

According to the analytical center Rusagrotrans, Russia is already close to setting a record for the export of wheat abroad, breaking the record set 5 years ago.

According to Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, the Russian Federation has already exported 47 million tons of wheat this season.

With this in mind, the figure of 49 million tons becomes more than realistic. IKAR believes that about 60 million tons of grain will be exported this season.

Why is Russian export growing?

There are several factors that contribute to the fact that Russian grain is becoming more and more popular in the world market.

— Problems with the state of crops of spring wheat, as well as corn and soybeans in the United States. With this in mind, the prospects for the harvest may be revised.

— Unclear prospects for the Ukrainian grain deal. With a high probability, it will not be extended in July, so Ukrainian grain will also not be able to enter the world market, which will further reduce supply.

— In India, they revised the forecast for the wheat harvest this year, reducing it by about 10%. This could lead to India having to import more grain, which would increase demand.

— More active exports will also be facilitated by the reduction of the export duty, which was recently carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture by changing the formula for calculating this duty.

It is expected that from June 28 to July 4, the export duty will be at the level of 2,400 rubles per ton, while now it is 2,600 rubles per ton.

What will happen to prices?

All of the above factors contribute to the fact that prices in the world market have grown.

At the same time, domestic Russian prices also feel this trend and gradually go up after the world prices.

For example, over the past week, wheat prices within the Russian Federation have increased by an average of 500 rubles per ton.

Currently, the cost of Russian wheat on the world market is about $233 per ton. This makes it more than competitive in terms of price, because it is much more expensive from other manufacturers.

For example, American wheat is currently offered at a price of about $290 per ton, while French wheat is about $272 per ton.

With this in mind, Russian farmers have good chances to profitably sell the last year’s crop residues before the next season.