Over the past week (May 15-21), wheat has fallen in price by an average of 360 rubles per ton, corn — by 500 rubles per ton.
At the same time, over the previous week, the drop in prices for both crops was much less: about 100 rubles.
According to Vladimir Petrichenko, General Director of ProZerno analytical company, now prices are volatile, and the direction of their movement is changeable.
This is largely due to the fact that different groups of agricultural producers can take different positions on this issue.
For example, some people are selling what they have left over from last year at low prices.
And they can be understood: a new crop is just around the corner, for which it is necessary to free up storage facilities.
At the same time, other farmers are not going to get rid of their grain at a low price, they leave prices higher and are waiting for offers from buyers.
However, in general, the market is now facing a rather unfavorable situation, because it is very difficult for manufacturers to sell their products at prices that would allow them to obtain high margins.
Are there any prospects for improving the situation?
Many agrarians are looking forward to June 1, when the formula for calculating the export duty on wheat will be changed, which will lead to a decrease in the size of this duty.
However, low world grain prices are still not conducive to selling it at a profit.
For example, over the past week, French wheat has fallen in price by 5%, its cost is now about $247 per ton.
The American price fell by 2.3%, to $252 per ton, the Russian one – by 4.3%, to $245 per ton.
Such price dynamics allows Russian products to remain competitive in price, but it is still unprofitable for farmers: taking into account the still high export duty and increasing production costs, profit remains very small, and some even have to work in the red.
Nevertheless, as Elena Tyurina, director of the analytical department of the Russian Grain Union, noted, Russia is still actively exporting wheat.
During May 1-20, about 3.8 million tons of grain were sold abroad, which is 2.9 times more than in the same period last year.
Buying countries are increasing volumes.
For example, Turkey — 8 times, Egypt — 6 times, Saudi Arabia — 3.6 times, Libya — 2.7 times, Algeria — 4.3 times.
As a result, one can expect that Russia, one way or another, will be able to solve the problem of grain surpluses against the backdrop of last year’s record harvest.
