According to the US Department of Agriculture, this year in Russia there will be a higher oilseed crop than in the previous season. Accordingly, exports should also grow.

According to the USDA, the Russian Federation will harvest up to 16.5 million tons of sunflower this year, which will allow it to produce up to 6.36 million tons of oil.

At the same time, exports can reach up to 4.1 million tons, and domestic consumption — at the level of 2.4 million tons.

All these figures are slightly higher than in the previous season.

At the same time, domestic analysts, such as ProZerno and Oil and Fat Union, give slightly more modest figures.

For example, they estimate the sunflower harvest at no more than 16 million tons, and even then today there are already grounds for revising this forecast in a negative direction.

For example, in the Saratov region, it has not rained for a long time, which can significantly reduce the sunflower harvest.

How is the export of vegetable oil going?

 

ProZerno General Director Vladimir Petrichenko notes that there is a backlog here.

On the one hand, at the moment Russia has exported 3.2 million tons of oil, which is a whole 1 million tons more than it was a year ago on the same date.

On the other hand, last year there was a very large volume of oil production, so about 4 million tons need to be exported, but it is already obvious that it will hardly be possible to do this before the end of the season.

This means that carry-over stocks of vegetable oil will further increase in Russia.

Currently, the most active importers of Russian oil and fat products are such countries as China, Turkey, India, as well as Iran, Egypt and Algeria, said Kirill Lozovoy, an analyst at the OleoScope agency.

What is the price dynamics?

 

Now a ton of sunflower oil costs about $850.

This is significantly higher than it was recently: the “price bottom” that prices hit was at $700.

According to experts, in the near future there are grounds for expecting additional price increases.

At the same time, the relatively low prices that we have to work with now increase the demand for sunflower oil from a number of importers. For example, some are starting to see it as an alternative to palm oil.

On the one hand, oil producers are now worried about whether the Russian government will introduce an export duty on oil: if prices continue to rise, then given the weak ruble, this is quite likely.

On the other hand, Russia may withdraw from the Ukrainian grain deal as early as this month, in which case there are grounds for price increases and reduced competition.