According to some reports, the growth rate of the Russian agricultural sector is slowing down. In July, for the first time in 2 years, a decline was recorded.
Despite the alarming July trend, so far in 2023 as a whole, the agricultural production index is growing.
For the first 7 months of this year, the growth was 101%. At the same time, this is also a decline: a year ago, for the same period, the same index was 107%.
However, over 7 months of 2023, grain sales by agricultural producers increased by 55%, livestock and poultry meat — by 3%, milk — by 7%, eggs — by 4%.
Small correction or trend reversal?
Experts assess the emerging trend in different ways. For example, independent expert Alexander Korbut believes that the July decline is an unpleasant symptom, it may indicate that, in general, the agricultural policy pursued by the government is not effective.
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin last year pointed out the need to ensure the growth of the agro-industrial complex at the level of 3% per year.
But the VEB Institute predicts growth of only 2% this year. In other words, it will be less than the required level.
However, not everyone is so negative.
For example, Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the HSE Center for Market Research, believes that a slight decline after last year’s records is normal, since the land in most cases does not produce maximum yields for several years in a row.
According to the specialist, the July decline should not be seen as an indicator of serious problems.
For example, slower and later harvests in many regions compared to the previous season can be attributed to the decline in performance.
In some places, farmers also stated that they did not have enough fuel. However, these are all local and surmountable problems.
In addition, the high harvest of last year is a very high base, when compared with it, almost any indicator will be a decrease, this should also be taken into account when analyzing existing trends. In other words, there is no cause for concern, Ostapkovich believes.
One way or another, Russia will in any case provide itself with the necessary volume of agricultural products for domestic consumption.
As for exports, this year its volume may grow to $46 billion.
This is more than last season, when products worth $41.5 billion were exported.
However, one of the reasons for this growth may be precisely the consequences of the highest harvest in 2022, since a significant part of the same grain has not yet been sold to the end.
