In general, agricultural production has been growing over the past decades, but now there is a noticeable decline.
Experts note that from 1961 to 2021, global agricultural production increased by approximately 2.3% per year.
At the same time, growth can be achieved due to various factors, including an increase in the area of land used, an increase in irrigation volumes, an increase in productivity and an increase in the efficiency of other production factors.
The first 2 factors make it possible to quickly increase production, but they lead to adverse consequences for the environment: the load on land and water increases, which can cause a shortage of fresh water, a decrease in land productivity due to reduced opportunities for crop rotation.
All this is happening today in many countries, and this is not a positive trend.
However, in recent decades, the main reason for the growth in agricultural production has been the last 2 factors: increased yields and increased production efficiency.
In general, we are talking about an increase in labor productivity.
In the 1960s and 1970s, this was mainly achieved through the intensive use of fertilizers, which led to an explosion in production efficiency.
Since the 1990s, the picture has changed; now growth is mainly achieved through the introduction of new technologies, which requires significant investment in development.
However, at present we have a decrease in production growth rates. From 2001 to 2010 it was 2.7% per year, from 2011 to 2020 — less than 2% per year.
And experts believe that this trend may continue: production rates will fall.
What is this connected with?
— Climate change in many countries is leading to increased occurrence of extreme weather events, such as drought, which can significantly reduce crop yields.
At the same time, climate change has, in fact, just begun, so it can be assumed that in the future the frequency and intensity of such phenomena will increase.
— Modern and efficient means of production require increasing costs for development and implementation. However, not all companies and not all countries have enough money and scientific base to do this.
Not everyone has equal access to existing technologies and developments. In addition to the lack of finance, aggravation of relations between states, wars, sanctions and trade conflicts become problems.
For this reason, there is reason to expect that the previous rate of growth in production volumes will not be achieved in the near future.
