The Russian Federation has a chance to become the world’s largest wheat exporter for the fifth time in a row, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
According to the American department, Russia can harvest about 88 million tons of wheat this year, and this does not include Crimea and new regions.
Compared to last year, when the harvest was 91.5 million tons, this is a noticeable drop.
But Russia can still retain first place in exports, because domestic consumption has remained virtually unchanged and amounts to about 40 million tons. From this, American analysts concluded that the Russian Federation can export about 52 million tons of wheat this season.
This is also 1.5 million tons less than in the previous season, but still remains a very significant value, and moreover, it allows Russia to maintain its undisputed leadership in this regard.
The second largest supplier of wheat to the world market after Russia and its main competitor is the EU, which is expected to export about 34 million tons this season.
Ukraine should be in third place, but its exports do not exceed 14 million tons due to a significant decrease in production volumes.
By the way, the European Union is also facing a decline in production volumes. For example, France has had unfavorable weather conditions this year, and it is a key exporter among all EU countries.
At the same time, in Russia, forecasts for the future harvest are already being reduced due to weather conditions. On May 8, Rusagrotrans lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation from 92 million tons to 89.9 million, this was done due to drought.
However, since then, May frosts have also occurred across a large territory of the Russian Federation; experts have not yet had time to assess the damage, but do not rule out that we may be talking about the loss of an additional 1-2 million tons of wheat.
General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies Dmitry Rylko believes that an even more significant reduction in the forecast due to frost is possible.
Since all 3 main suppliers may face a decrease in harvest, competition in the global market may increase, experts warn.
By the way, in recent years there has been a tendency for Russia to increasingly conquer the markets of the Middle East and Africa, displacing the European Union and Ukraine from there.
There is no doubt that this trend can continue this season.
In the Western Hemisphere, on the other hand, large wheat harvests from the US, Canada and Australia are expected this season, which could lead to equally fierce competition between these producing countries.
