According to analysts, the volume of wheat exports from Russia this month may be at a very high level.
It is possible that this month Russia will again be able to set a record for wheat export volumes. It is emphasized that usually in the last spring month the Russian Federation ships 1.5 million tons of wheat abroad, this is the average value for the last 5 years.
However, this time it cannot be ruled out that 5.1 million tons of wheat will be shipped. This is more than three times the annual average.
According to the Russian Grain Union, Russia has already exported 3.4 million tons of grain since May 1, taking this into account, the figure of 5.1 million tons looks quite realistic.
What caused the active export of Russian wheat?
One of the main reasons is the high competitiveness of Russian products in terms of price.
For example, as of mid-May, a ton of wheat from the Russian Federation cost about $238, while French wheat was $21 more expensive.
This has led to the fact that Russian products are actively attracting buyers.
The second reason was a significant decrease in the prospects for the wheat harvest this season throughout almost the entire territory of the Russian Federation.
At a minimum, frosts caused serious damage in the central part of the country, in the south and in the Volga region. For this reason, analysts have already lowered the overall forecast for the grain harvest in the Russian Federation by 7.2 million tons, to 85.7 million tons.
This may lead to a decrease in export volumes in the new season and, accordingly, prices to rise.
Since Russia is today one of the main suppliers of wheat to the world market, this could affect almost the entire situation in this market.
Realizing this, many buyers are beginning to increase supplies in advance. For example, this month Egypt purchased 300 thousand tons of Russian wheat, while in April the export volume was significantly less, at 120 thousand tons.
Experts say another reason for the growing popularity of Russian wheat is the slowdown in grain exports from Ukraine. According to the latest data, about 0.8 million tons of wheat were shipped from there over the past month, which is as much as 29% less than in the previous month.
A slowdown in exports from a competitor provides even more opportunities for Russian companies.
Against the backdrop of all this, the Ministry of Agriculture is distributing additional quotas for grain exports.
It was initially planned that the total volume from February 15 to June 30 would be 24 million tons, but the quota was subsequently increased by another 5 million tons.
Basically, the distribution follows a historical principle: companies that previously exported large volumes receive additional volumes.
