According to the latest data from the US Department of Agriculture, the forecast for wheat exports this year will be around 48 million tons.
The US Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for wheat exports from Russia at 48 million tons. This is significantly less than last season – 55.5 million tons.
At the same time, according to the US department, the wheat harvest in Russia will be at 83 million tons.
This is also significantly less than in the previous season, when Russian farmers managed to harvest around 91.5 million tons of wheat.
Carry-over stocks will also decrease: if last season they were at the level of 10.2 million tons, then this time they are unlikely to exceed 6.7 million tons.
However, in the conditions of a shortage of storage space, which always remains a problem for farmers, many experts consider the reduction in the volume of carry-over stocks as a positive factor.
As for Russian analysts, they generally agree with the US Department of Agriculture.
For example, according to ProZerno, the wheat harvest this year will be about 82.5 million tons. In addition, farmers should harvest up to 17 million tons of barley and about 15 million tons of corn.
In total, the Russian grain harvest this year should be about 128 million tons excluding new regions, and if we take them into account, then 132 million tons.
In general, we see that the latest forecasts are not much different from those made at the beginning of summer.
However, if we talk about grain harvest in specific regions, then in the south of Russia it has been reduced due to drought.
Meanwhile, there is hope that a good harvest in other regions of the country, in particular in the Urals, will compensate for the negative impact that the drought has brought to agriculture in the south.
Russia can maintain high grain exports
“Despite smaller harvests in Russia and Ukraine, wheat exports from these countries are expected to remain high, as prices are competitive with EU price offers.
The EU is likely to lose market share in some of its leading importers, including Morocco, Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt.
In addition, with favorable harvest prospects in Canada and the US, the EU will face additional competition in its largest sales market, China,” the US Department of Agriculture said in a report.
Thus, a significant decline in exports is unlikely to be expected, even though the gross grain harvest this year is smaller than in the previous one.
At the same time, grain prices are currently rising, which is an additional positive for agricultural producers and exporters and may stimulate them to supply larger volumes.
