According to the latest data, it is planned that the volume of fish catch next year will remain approximately at the current level.
Chairman of the Fish Union Alexander Panin noted that this year the level of fish catch is about 5 million tons. It is highly likely that the same figure will be maintained in 2025, the expert believes.
At the same time, we see stability or even growth in most sectors of the fishery.
For example, the pollock catch amounted to more than 1.9 million tons, which is an increase compared to the previous year. Also, over 500 thousand tons of ivasi and 110 thousand tons of Far Eastern squid were caught.
However, there are some problems.
The catch of the Far Eastern fishing season fell to 235 thousand tons, and the volume of cod catch has been declining for the fourth year in a row. Among other things, this leads to its rise in price.
According to the forecast of the Fish Union, next year fish and seafood are expected to grow in price moderately, at the level of general inflation.
The reasons for such price increases include high personnel costs, which Russian businesses face today in almost all industries due to a shortage of personnel in the market.
The situation is also complicated by the high interest rate of the Central Bank, which makes any loans almost unaffordable: both for the development of the fishery and for operational activities.
Finally, it is worth paying attention to such a factor as the rise in import prices and the decrease in supply.
As for imports, last year they amounted to 470 thousand tons during the first three quarters, and the total amount of fish products received in Russia was at the level of 1.5 billion dollars.
This year, the figures were 420 thousand tons and 1.3 billion dollars, respectively, which is a significant decrease.
At the same time, analysts do not see prerequisites for the volume of imports to increase next year, rather the opposite: all the listed negative factors are likely to continue to operate, plus the cheap ruble has a significant impact on imports, which makes it difficult to purchase products for foreign currency.
Therefore, a reduction in imports is considered one of the possible options, a more optimistic one is stagnation, while growth looks extremely unlikely in the current situation.
As for exports, the cheap ruble makes them more profitable, so it is quite possible that next year they may grow by an insignificant amount.
But for now, it is falling. In the first half of this year, the volume of fish exports amounted to 990 thousand tons against 1.2 million tons a year earlier.
