There is a possibility that the marginality of crops such as barley, wheat and corn may increase by the end of the current season.
According to a number of analysts, barley profitability may increase to about 30% this season. In this case, it will be twice as high as last year, farmers emphasize.
The reason is, first of all, the rise in prices for this product. This, in turn, was the result of a significant decrease in production.
If in 2023 the barley harvest was at the level of about 21 million tons, then in 2024 it did not even reach the mark of 17 million tons.
As for the profitability of corn, it may also show significant growth this season, increasing from 26% to 40%.
The reasons are practically the same: last year’s gross harvest fell from 17 million tons to 13 million tons due to unfavorable weather conditions, which primarily mean the drought that took place over a large area of Russia.
At the same time, the carry-over corn stocks also fell by 10% and are at a minimum level in several years of 3 million tons. As a result, the price of corn has increased by about 30%, experts note.
Wheat has also demonstrated a very strong increase in profitability. If last season it was about 20%, now it has exceeded 40%.
And here we are faced with the same factors: weather conditions caused a reduction in the harvest, as a result, the average selling prices of producers increased by about 25%.
At the same time, the producers themselves note that the cost of production is also steadily increasing, mainly due to an increase in fertilizer application rates.
In addition, there is currently a trend of increasing demand for hard wheat varieties, the yield of which is traditionally lower than that of soft varieties.
This may affect the absolute harvest figures, which will be lower than in previous seasons. In turn, this may also cause price increases.
As a result, the profitability of farmers begins to depend on many factors at once, and not the least of them is the change in the ruble exchange rate.
“If we compare the end of last year and what is happening now, then everything should be fine, but we must remember that the ruble a year ago and two years ago was worth completely different money in terms of purchasing resources,” notes independent expert of the agricultural market Alexander Korbut.
It cannot be ruled out that the US tariff policy will have a significant impact on the markets — but what exactly is still difficult to predict, everything will depend on further developments.
