It is predicted that this year the grain harvest in Russia may amount to about 131.3 million tons.
This forecast is given by the analytical company ProZerno, emphasizing that this is about the harvest size taking into account new regions.
Last year the harvest was about 129.8 million tons. Thus, in the current season farmers can collect 1.5 million tons more than in the previous one, which can be considered a good result.
Nevertheless, a high harvest should not become a reason to ignore the numerous problems of the agricultural sector, experts warn.
One of the main ones is that farmers’ interest in growing grain is currently falling. The reason is that it is almost impossible to recoup production costs by selling finished products.
«The total sown area will increase this year — that’s a fact.
But these are total, and under grain they are decreasing. They are increasing under oilseeds, under industrial crops.
The collective farmer runs away from grain, it is unprofitable, unprofitable,” notes Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of ProZerno.
Even in the regions of the Black Earth Region, which are rightfully considered to be among the most fertile, the profitability of grain does not exceed 6%, and in some places even reaches zero.
For comparison, oilseed crops such as sunflower, rapeseed and soybeans have a profitability of 30% to 60%.
As a result, when we hear that the sown area in Russia is increasing, we need to understand that this does not apply to grain: on the contrary, it is decreasing year after year, experts warn.
In particular, according to the latest data, the sown area under wheat this year may decrease from 28 million hectares to 27 million hectares, under corn — from 2.69 million hectares to 2.63 million tons.
And only barley can show a slight increase from 6.9 million tons to 7.2 million tons.
At the same time, such an attitude of farmers to grain cultivation gradually affects exports.
For example, from February 15 to June 30, Russia has a quota for the export of wheat in the amount of 10.6 million tons, but it is unlikely to be used.
Analysts believe that the final real volume of exports will not exceed 7.5 million tons.
It is already noticeable that the export process is very sluggish. For example, from February 15 to April 20, Russia shipped only 4 million tons of wheat, which is less than 40% of the volumes for the same period last year.
As a result, exports are no longer playing such an important role for the Russian grain market, and it is possible that in the near future this trend will only increase.
