The US Department of Agriculture expects that the harvest in Russia will grow this year, which will open up opportunities for growth in agricultural exports.
The US department made calculations according to which wheat exports next season will amount to about 45 million tons. This is more than in the current season: 43.5 million tons. Production will amount to about 83 million tons.
At the same time, Russian experts believe that the US Department of Agriculture forecast may be underestimated.
The first reason is that such forecasts do not take into account Crimea and new regions that have significant potential in terms of agricultural production.
The second is that forecasts are usually significantly adjusted closer to autumn. There is a high probability that this will be the case this time.
Independent expert of the agricultural market Alexander Korbut does not rule out that the total grain harvest this year in the Russian Federation will amount to about 129 million tons, «if there are no additional natural disasters. But, as we see from the past and this year, they are already becoming a common occurrence,” he noted.
Other analysts, on the contrary, believe that the US Department of Agriculture overstates its forecasts for wheat exports, which usually end up being less.
As a result, Russia’s export potential could amount to about 40 million tons, Russian experts believe.
One way or another, Russia will certainly remain a significant player in the grain market in the new season and will actively compete with other exporters, including, for example, the European Union.
It is assumed that the struggle will be quite tough this time, since the EU also has good harvest prospects.
Analysts believe that European countries will be able to send abroad a total of about 34 million tons of wheat. This, by the way, is significantly more than in the current season: about 26 million tons. However, here too, everything depends on the harvest, and it, in turn, on weather conditions.
For now, European farmers expect to harvest about 136 million tons. This is also a noticeable jump compared to the previous season: 122 million tons.
However, the Russian Federation will most likely manage to maintain its leadership: it has been the largest supplier of wheat to the world market for the sixth year in a row.
What is important is that it also maintains high competitiveness in terms of prices at which it offers its products.
However, at present, the discount on Russian wheat compared to European wheat is decreasing, which may already in the foreseeable future cause additional difficulties for Russian exporters who will try to sell their harvest abroad.
