Experts note that this season, for the first time in 4 years, the Russian market has seen a decrease in both the production of vegetable oil and its exports.
According to the latest data, in the 2024-2025 season, the volume of vegetable oil production in Russia is about 9.5 million tons.
This is a significant decrease compared to the previous season — by 7%, which can be considered a very negative result.
The main reason is that the volume of sunflower oil production has fallen, analysts point out.
A logical consequence was that the export of this product has also decreased. Moreover, this trend affected not only sunflower oil, but also almost all other vegetable oils.
For example, the volume of soybean oil production has remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous season, but its exports have dropped by 19%.
In this case, the problem is related to the fact that Russia has suspended the previously valid permit for the import of genetically modified soybeans into its territory. Previously, it was supplied to the Russian Federation — without the right to sell, but with the right to process it in the country, so that the oil produced from it could be subsequently sold abroad.
Accordingly, the suspension of such a permit led to a decrease in the inflow of raw materials for oil production into Russia, which caused a reduction in volumes.
Against this background, rapeseed oil looks positive: last season, its production increased by 16%, and exports — by 14%.
At the same time, the overall volume of oilseed processing in 2024-2025 amounted to 26 million tons. This is a decrease compared to 28 million tons — a record value of the previous year.
The main problem that producers and exporters of vegetable oils currently face is the established price disparity, which largely reduces the marginality of oilseed processing.
On the one hand, the cost of raw materials has increased by 15-25%, on the other hand, world prices for sunflower oil are currently stagnating.
As a result, oil producers are forced to spend significant funds on purchasing raw materials, while sales of finished products do not always cover the costs. It has come to the point that some enterprises have even chosen to close rather than continue to operate at a loss.
Some analysts expect that this year Russia may harvest a record harvest of oilseeds, and as a result, their surplus may cause a decrease in prices.
At the same time, the Russian Federation is entering the new season with minimal carryover sunflower residues, so the decline is unlikely to be strong.
