According to the latest data, export prices for this product are currently at their highest level since 2022.
Experts note that the price of vegetable oil exported by Russia has increased by approximately 23% over the past year, and by 5% over the past month. As a result, the current price of one ton of oil is approximately $1,200.
Experts believe that the rise in sunflower oil prices is due to the simultaneous influence of several factors.
The first is increased consumer demand. This, in turn, may be due to the overall growing global demand for vegetable oils, which India actively consumes and which are also used in the production of biodiesel.
As for India, seasonal factors are also at play. The country is currently actively purchasing not only oil but also other products in anticipation of a series of autumn holidays.
This could explain, in particular, the 5% increase in oil exports over the past month. Analysts note that this trend is likely to continue in the coming weeks.
Furthermore, rising prices are also a consequence of reduced supply, driven by declining vegetable oil production in some Black Sea countries.
For example, in Ukraine, this year’s sunflower harvest could reach approximately 11 million tons, a 10-year low.
Meanwhile, in Turkey, agricultural producers are facing a negative natural phenomenon, drought, which threatens to reduce the sunflower harvest to 1.2 million tons.
As a result, Russia is well-positioned to actively export vegetable oil this season. It is projected to reach approximately 5 million tons.
However, overall, we see that the volume of vegetable oil exports from Russia is currently declining.
For example, in September 2025, it was 30% lower than in 2024. And from January to September, exports fell by 34% compared to the same period in 2024.
Analysts attribute this to a significant decline in export profitability, which has led to a decrease in exporters’ incentive to export.
Despite rising prices, export prospects remain ambiguous, as sunflower oil prices are under pressure from global oil prices in general, particularly soybean oil, which is experiencing a market oversupply.
