Experts believe that in the first months of the year, it will likely be at least as high as in December.
Currently, the sunflower oil export duty set by the Ministry of Agriculture is at approximately 8,214 rubles per ton. It is emphasized that this is significantly higher than the November level, when it was 1,401 rubles lower.
Russia currently remains the largest exporter of sunflower oil to the global market, accounting for approximately 35% of the market, analysts note.
This is an extremely high level, but the prospects for further export growth are currently questionable.
Firstly, Russia harvested a decent sunflower crop this year, but it was far from a record. As a result, domestic sunflower oil production volumes have declined.
This, in turn, has led to a rise in domestic prices of approximately 15%. This price increase is extremely negative, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, and the export duty is primarily intended to prevent this product from becoming less affordable for Russian citizens.
For this reason, it can be expected that the Ministry of Agriculture may well continue to tighten the screws by raising the duty further.
Secondly, the ruble is currently demonstrating unprecedented strength. This is a major negative for all exporters, who ultimately receive fewer rubles for each ton of product sold.
Therefore, the current exchange rate of the Russian currency is significantly impacting the revenue of companies exporting sunflower oil.
Overall, experts say that export prices for the oil are relatively stable for now.
In November, they were around $1,200 per ton. However, experts warn that this is a fairly high bar, while some other oils, such as palm and soybean, are significantly cheaper.
For this reason, there is a shift in demand in their favor, which could further cool the global sunflower oil market and further reduce the incentive for Russian exporters to sell.
At the same time, there are also factors that could support export duties on sunflower oil.
For example, these include the highly likely resumption of purchases by major importing countries such as Iran, India, and Turkey.
This allows Russian companies to expect that both demand for sunflower oil and its price will remain at more or less acceptable levels for the foreseeable future.
