Despite the high grain harvest achieved last year, Russia risks facing export difficulties, experts note.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s forecast, Russia has the potential to export up to 44 million tons of wheat this year. This is roughly the same volume as in the previous season, when this figure was 43 million tons.
Meanwhile, Russia’s wheat production in 2025 was approximately 90 million tons of grain.
Furthermore, Russia produced approximately 15 million tons of corn, 3 million of which could be exported.
However, Russian analysts note that while the US Department of Agriculture’s forecasts are generally correct, they do not take into account Russia’s new regions.
Based on these forecasts, Russia’s grain harvest last year was 142 million tons, of which approximately 93 million tons was wheat. As a result, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, the export forecast for the 2025-2026 season is up to 55 million tons of wheat.
We see a fundamental discrepancy with the American data: by 12 million tons of wheat.
This is a significant figure that could significantly impact the global market, so it cannot be ignored.
At the same time, although the export potential of 55 million tons undoubtedly offers good prospects for the country, the question remains as to the extent to which this potential will be realized.
Experts see several problems that could hinder this.
First, the global market is currently oversaturated with grain. Supply exceeds demand, as many grain producers, like Russia, harvested a good crop in 2025.
This, in turn, means that global market prices are currently not high enough to motivate producers and exporters to actively sell their products.
Secondly, the exceptionally strong ruble has also become a problem for Russian companies. It significantly reduces the real profits they receive from grain sales.
Finally, we mustn’t forget the sanctions restrictions, which are also hindering the unimpeded export of grain from the country.
All this could ultimately lead to farmers not fulfilling the grain export quota of up to 20 million tons.
Analysts, however, doubt that the 55 million tons harvested last year will be able to be exported for the entire year.
Considering this, if the 2026 harvest is also good, this threatens to create a significant surplus of produce, and marketing options for this surplus should be considered now.
