Experts note that seaborne oil shipments are currently becoming more expensive due to geopolitical tensions, creating problems for producers.
The military conflicts in the Middle East, which we observed in February-March 2026, have had an extremely negative impact on logistics.
Against this backdrop, we are seeing a dramatic rise in oil prices from $65-70 to $100 in just a couple of weeks. Experts emphasize that food supplies have also been disrupted.
At the same time, they note that logistics costs have risen rapidly and disproportionately compared to the prices of the goods themselves.
Analysts point out that tanker freight costs have currently increased by almost 15-20%, a very significant increase that could not have been anticipated and accepted by the market.
Meanwhile, the products themselves often show no signs of price appreciation.
For example, vegetable oil is currently trending negatively. This is explained by the fact that key importers of this type of agricultural product have accumulated significant oil reserves.
As a result, real global prices for finished oils remain stable, with slight increases only observed on exchange markets.
This has a direct and extremely negative impact on Russian suppliers, experts note.
Companies focused on shipments to India, China, and Iraq are currently forced to operate at a loss. It is estimated that they are incurring losses of up to $40 per ton of product.
Therefore, virtually all their export activities are economically devoid of any sense.
Experts note that this situation threatens to severely impact the raw material market.
Raw material producers were already facing low prices for their products, and now that processors are operating with negative margins, they will have an even greater incentive to offer raw material suppliers even less favorable terms.
If they refuse to supply sunflower seeds at low prices, processors will find it easier to shut down their unprofitable operations than to accept high prices, experts warn.
This could cause serious problems for the entire sunflower seed market, especially given that a good sunflower harvest is also expected this year.
This will inevitably increase existing raw material stocks, which will likely have an additional negative impact on prices.
In the current situation, only those exporters who can quickly reorganize their logistics and find new buyers will benefit, but this will be an extremely difficult task.
