Starting March 18, the government will set a non-zero export duty on wheat. Producers and exporters are concerned that this could significantly complicate their lives.
According to the latest data, the duty on wheat exports from Russia from March 18 to 24 is 135.4 rubles.
At the same time, a zero duty has been in effect since the beginning of the year, to which many companies have already become accustomed. This change in conditions is a factor they will have to take into account.
Meanwhile, the duty on other grains remains at zero, analysts note.
For example, this applies to corn and barley. As a result, exporting these crops is becoming more profitable than shipping wheat abroad.
Experts explain that there are currently factors driving the grain export duty upward.
The main one is a slight increase in wheat prices. Currently, a tonne is trading at around $238.
Tariffs will likely continue to rise if grain prices rise on the global market. Currently, producers have experienced a significant drop in prices.
Therefore, some recovery from the current low levels is entirely possible.
Furthermore, the conflict in the Middle East has created uncertainty in many countries, potentially threatening their food security. As a result, importers have stepped up their purchases.
However, experts note that the main countries that traditionally purchase agricultural products from Russia have already largely settled on their norms. Therefore, it is unlikely that they will dramatically increase their purchases.
At the same time, agricultural producers with grain reserves are in no rush to sell them to exporters at current global market prices, as they expect them to rise further.
Furthermore, wheat exporters and producers cannot ignore the dollar exchange rate. Recently, it rose above 80 rubles, which is positive for all companies selling Russian products to other countries, as they receive more rubles from each shipment.
If this trend continues, it could offset the costs associated with the need to pay duties.
As for a significant rise in global grain prices, experts believe that this is practically impossible, as most producing countries are planning a bumper harvest this season, just like last season.
Excess supply, in turn, is pushing prices down even further.
