According to experts, the final grain harvest in the western part of the continent could be significantly lower than last season’s record levels.
The conflict in the Middle East could lead to a urea shortage in Australia, according to Australian parliamentarians. Due to the disruption of logistics routes, supplies can be expected to decline significantly in the near future.
Furthermore, experts note that Australia is already critically short of urea.
In global agriculture, urea is the main source of nitrogen, which is essential for plant growth.
Historically, Australia has imported most of this fertilizer from the Persian Gulf. It is from there that shipping from the Gulf will be nearly impossible in the spring of 2026 due to the threat to shipping caused by the US-Iran conflict.
As a result, according to available data, of the 800,000 tons of urea needed to supply the upcoming harvest, only about 100,000 tons are in Australia or in transit.
This means the fertilizer shortage is approximately 700,000 tons.
Furthermore, sowing is already underway: thanks to heavy rainfall in Australia, local farmers have begun sowing even earlier than usual. As we can see, there is a total fertilizer shortage, which could lead to virtually no application.
It’s logical that the drop in yield under such conditions could be catastrophic, as analysts are already directly reporting. The decline could be as much as 45%, essentially halving it.
Australia’s final grain harvest could reach approximately 15 million tons.
Western Australia is effectively the breadbasket of the entire continent, producing and exporting the most grain.
Thus, such a significant decline in the harvest in this region threatens to create a food shortage in the country and significantly reduce its income.
The farmers’ problems don’t end there: the conflict in the Middle East is causing disruptions in oil supplies, resulting in tractors currently working in the fields not receiving enough fuel.
Grain producers are placing large orders but receiving them in small quantities, leaving storage facilities half-empty.
It is now almost certain that the Iranian conflict will last longer than the sowing season. Therefore, objective factors are unlikely to allow Australian farmers to have a good harvest this year.
