According to the latest data, online grocery sales continue to grow, but the high rates of growth are a thing of the past.
Statistics indicate that online grocery sales reached 482 billion rubles in the first quarter of this year. This is 24% more than in the same period last year.
While this figure appears promising at first glance, we are actually seeing the most modest quarterly growth since at least the beginning of 2023. For example, growth in the first quarter of 2025 was 26%, and in 2024, it was a whopping 56%.
Experts see several reasons for this significant slowdown.
One is the rising costs retailers incur, which they are forced to factor into their prices. This increases prices and makes them less attractive to buyers.
A second, rather important reason is the disruption of mobile phone service in a number of Russian regions.
Experts explain that the lack of a stable internet connection automatically disables all digital services, making traditional e-commerce unavailable. This naturally leads to a decrease in the number of orders.
The general cooling of consumer demand, both online and offline, plays an equally important role.
Recent data shows that Russian citizens are increasingly inclined to save and are reducing their shopping baskets.
Under these conditions, it’s natural that online and offline retail volumes are beginning to decline.
Another factor is natural market saturation.
Some experts believe that after several years of rapid growth, especially during the pandemic, the core audience willing and able to use such services has already been engaged.
Further audience growth is slower, meaning the rate of growth is also slowing.
Future forecasts, however, vary.
For example, the Association of Online Retail Companies does not rule out the possibility that online retail could account for 20% to 35% of grocery retail turnover in the future, which will support the segment’s accelerated growth.
Some other experts offer a more conservative estimate, predicting that the online channel’s share will reach 7% by 2026 and 10% by 2028.
It is noteworthy that none of them expect a return to the peak growth levels of 2023–2024 in the coming quarters.
Therefore, it can be concluded that, while online grocery retail growth continues in the foreseeable future, its rate will clearly slow down.
