The global oilseed market is demonstrating a confident upward trend.
New prospects are opening up for the domestic agro-industrial complex, and ambitious goals are being set.
According to the latest June forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the total global oilseed harvest will increase by 17.5 million tons in the upcoming 2026/27 agricultural season, reaching an impressive 718.2 million tons.
Sunflower will be the key driver of this process, with global production expected to jump by 12.3%.
This trend is creating new rules for planning the raw material base for the country’s processing industry.
Russian Records: Sunflower and Rapeseed on the Rise
Russia is at the forefront of global trends, significantly increasing production capacity in key products.
Experts agree that the current season could bring historic harvests to the industry:
Sunflower.
The US Department of Agriculture has revised its May estimates for our country upwards, to 19.5 million tons (compared to 17.5 million tons last season).
Meanwhile, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (ICAR) is offering an even more ambitious forecast, expecting it to approach an all-time high of 20 million tons. The area under this crop has already expanded to 11.2 million hectares.
Rapeseed
Foreign analysts predict the harvest of this oilseed to be 6 million tons (an increase of half a million tons year-on-year), with the area expanding to 3.2 million hectares.
Domestic experts confirm that the area under spring rapeseed has reached a record high this year.
Soybeans.
In contrast, a correction has been observed in this segment. Due to underplanting, the harvest is expected to reach 8.8 million tons, slightly below initial expectations.
Overall, OleoScope analysts expect production in Russia for the six main oilseed crops to increase by 3%, to 35.1 million tons.
June Sowing Surprises
Adjusting forecasts during spring fieldwork is common practice for farmers, but June 2026 has proven to be particularly dynamic.
Vladimir Petrichenko, head of ProZerno, emphasizes that the field situation is changing every week: farmers are actively replanting their fields, quickly replacing soybeans with sunflower and rapeseed.
IKAR Director Dmitry Rylko also notes that sowing is still ongoing, so the final figures will depend heavily on agroclimatic conditions during the ripening period.
Global Balance and Export Potential
Global oilseed supply is outpacing consumption growth, but a significant price collapse is not expected.
Stability is ensured by colossal demand from Asian countries (primarily China) and the active development of the biofuel industry.
Global vegetable oil production will increase by 6.4 million tons to 244.1 million tons, with sunflower oil accounting for the lion’s share of this increase.
For Russia, exports remain a key development vector.
According to OleoScope, in the first five months of 2026, crude oilseed exports from our country increased by a record 39%, reaching 1.57 million tons. Exports of finished vegetable oils during the same period amounted to almost 3 million tons.
The high utilization rate of domestic processing plants and the guaranteed harvest of raw materials allow our companies to confidently look forward to the new season.
The main challenge for holding companies now is to maintain a balance between domestic supply and realizing their export potential in a highly competitive environment.
