The domestic poultry market is demonstrating significant volatility, forcing analysts and processors to closely monitor wholesale prices.
During the week of June 15-21, 2026, the wholesale price of a broiler carcass settled at 200 rubles per kilogram. This is 10% higher than last year’s figure and 4% higher than the previous week.
The current price surge is a clear indicator of structural changes in the industry, where producers are attempting to restore margins after prolonged stagnation.
Cut and Raise the Price: Imbalance in Carcass Cutting
The main feature of the current situation is the extreme unevenness in price dynamics for individual broiler parts. While overall wholesale prices are showing moderate growth, the highly marketable cuts segment is seeing double-digit increases:
Fillet and thigh prices have seen a significant jump: thigh prices have increased by 26% year-over-year (to 158 rubles/kg), while fillets have risen by 25% (to 360 rubles/kg).
Thighs have seen a more modest 10% increase, reaching 170 rubles/kg.
Wings and drumsticks, on the other hand, have fallen by 4% (to 188 rubles/kg) and 2% (to 172 rubles/kg), respectively.
Mechanically deboned ground meat (raw material for semi-finished products) has seen the biggest price drop, down 16% to 52 rubles/kg.
The relevant ministry attributes this mixed trend to natural market conditions, seasonal fluctuations in demand, and changing consumer preferences within the country.
However, the situation appears more stable in the retail and wholesale segments. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, producer prices have fallen by 2% since the beginning of the year, while retail prices have declined by 1.5%.
The consumer price of chilled poultry (233.3 rubles/kg) has increased by only 3.2% over the year, significantly lagging behind the rate of general inflation.
The Shortage Factor: Why Production is Falling
Experts cite a reduction in market supply as the fundamental reason for the surge in wholesale prices.
Rosstat statistics confirm this trend: from January to May 2026, large agricultural organizations produced 2.76 million tons of poultry meat, which is 2.1% less than the same period last year.
In May, the decline in production accelerated to -4% year-on-year (557,000 tons produced).
Albert Davleyev, President of Agrifood Strategies, attributes this to a protracted crisis in poultry farm profitability in 2025, a weak year for the industry, when prices failed to keep pace with inflation. As a result, businesses abandoned plans to increase production.
Furthermore, exporters shifted their focus to small broiler production, which reduced the overall tonnage of products by weight.
Additional pressure on the market comes from seasonal demand for shashlik dishes, growing epizootic risks, and companies’ biosecurity costs.
Export Footprint and Vague Forecasts
An interesting detail: the decline in wholesale prices for wings and drumsticks is directly linked to China.
China, which had previously been actively purchasing these parts from Russia, has increased its own production, reducing imports. As a result, unsold volumes remained within the country, creating a local surplus and pushing down prices.
The Ministry of Agriculture’s official, optimistic forecast for 2026 still promises a 1.2% overall increase in poultry production and a 6.4% increase in exports.
The ministry assures that the domestic market is fully supplied. However, independent analysts doubt these figures are achievable and do not rule out that wholesale broiler prices in the second half of the year will be significantly higher than initially expected.
Poultry farmers will have to balance rising cost pressures with strict price controls in retail chains.
