The domestic crop production sector is undergoing a large-scale transformation of its crop acreage structure, quickly responding to challenges in profitability and climate change.
During the annual meeting of the National Union of Pig Breeders, Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), presented an updated market balance forecast for the 2026/27 season.
The key conclusion of the report was a clear shift among farmers toward sunflower and rapeseed amid an unprecedented reduction in spring grain acreage.
Oilseed vector: sunflower sets a record, soybeans lose ground
The main surprise of the forecast revision was the significant increase in the sunflower harvest estimate.
Sunflower:
IKAR raised the expected harvest by 700,000 tons—from the previous 19 million to 19.7 million tons. This significantly exceeds the 2025/26 season’s harvest of 16.9 million tonnes.
These exceptionally high volumes are being driven by continued high global prices for vegetable oils, which are rising due to the biofuel boom in the US and EU, as well as instability in the Persian Gulf.
A ton of domestic sunflower oil is currently trading at around $1,300.
Soybeans:
In contrast, IKAR lowered its forecast for this segment to 8.2 million tonnes, down from 8.8 million tonnes in May (last year’s forecast was 9 million tonnes).
However, processors should not expect a raw material shortage: domestic supply will be supported by the imminent launch of a mega-plant in the Far East, a flexible export regime, and stable imports.
Grain Balance: Historic Failure of Spring Crops and Compensation from Winter Crops
The grain sector has set a historic precedent: the area under spring wheat has fallen below the critical mark of 10 million hectares, marking an all-time low.
Farmers are abandoning spring wheat en masse in favor of more profitable rapeseed and sunflower.
Nevertheless, the overall gross wheat harvest will remain stable and is projected at 91.5 million tonnes (compared to 91.1 million tonnes a year earlier).
The decline in spring wheat is offset by an expansion of winter wheat plantings (up 100,000 hectares) and an expected increase in its yield.
Related grain crops are showing different dynamics.
The barley harvest is expected at 17.7 million tonnes (down from 19.7 million tonnes). At the same time, the area under cultivation increased slightly, to 6.15 million hectares, thanks to favorable price conditions last year.
The corn harvest is forecast at 15.5 million tons, with a stable area of 2.6 million hectares. A geographic shift is underway in the corn segment: the South is reducing plantings due to drought, while the Volga region and the Far East are increasing them.
Challenges for the Meal Market
Livestock farmers should pay attention to the feed component market. The rise in global meal prices has petered out in anticipation of the fresh harvest, but local risks remain.
In particular, a severe drought in France could seriously impact the European rapeseed harvest, which could redraw the price and supply landscape for rapeseed meal.
Russian crop production is successfully moving away from wheat monoculture, diversifying risks through high-margin oilseeds.
The total export potential of grains and oilseeds is estimated to be high—64.2 million tonnes.
Under these circumstances, processors and exporters must secure contracts for sunflower and rapeseed volumes in advance, given the launch of new capacity in the Far East.
