The global grain market is witnessing tectonic shifts in the structure of Latin American demand, which could significantly reshape global trade flows in the coming years.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Mexico will reach unprecedented, record-breaking corn purchase volumes in the 2026 and 2027 marketing years – 26.5 million and 27.0 million tons, respectively.
This is a classic example of how domestic agricultural production is losing ground to rising costs and the rapid expansion of related industries.
Price Scissors: Why Mexican Farmers Are Moving Away from Corn
The main reason for the decline in domestic corn production in Mexico to a projected 24.3 million tons (down 2% year-on-year) is the sharply increased operating costs, which have made the crop unprofitable for local farmers.
Price pressure on farmers is building across all fronts:
Mineral fertilizers – the price of urea jumped 42% year-on-year (to 17,300 pesos/ton), while diammonium phosphate (DAP) rose by 9%.
Fuels and lubricants – retail prices for diesel fuel increased by approximately 7%.
Macroeconomics – the strengthening of the national currency (peso), coupled with low domestic grain prices, has virtually eliminated export potential, which will fall by a third to a symbolic 20,000 tons.
In the states of Jalisco, Michoacan, and Guanajuato, which generate more than a third of the spring-summer harvest, farmers are massively reducing the area under corn or quickly replacing it with less expensive sorghum.
Livestock Boom as a Catalyst for Dependence
While domestic production stagnates, demand from the processing sector is showing a strong upward trend.
The poultry industry is the main driver, growing by 4.4% last year. Mexican poultry farmers consume 18.8 million tons of feed annually, over 60% of which is feed grain.
In 2026, the UNA forecasts poultry production to grow by another 1.6%, which will automatically exacerbate the country’s import dependence.
Thanks to well-established logistics (65% goes by rail across the northern border) and price factors, the United States remains the beneficiary of this boom, accounting for almost all imports.
Mexico Officials Oppose: Statistics or Sovereignty?
The Mexican Ministry of Agriculture (SADER) categorically disagrees with the USDA and FAO’s findings, calling them inaccurate due to confusion in reporting periods. Authorities divide the food market into two independent areas:
White corn (food grade) – here the country maintains 100% autonomy: the domestic harvest of 20.6 million tons completely covers the population’s needs, while imports account for less than 5%.
Yellow corn (feed grade) – the import of 22.9 million tons is recognized as a necessary technological solution for supporting pig and poultry farming, which cannot be interpreted as a shortage.
At the same time, the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum is rolling out a large-scale program called «El Maíz es la Raíz» («Corn is the Root»).
Mexico City is attempting to legislatively and economically restrict the expansion of imported hybrid seeds from multinational corporations, subsidizing small farmers and preserving 29 local traditional corn varieties.
The Mexican case is a striking illustration of the stark choice many developing agricultural countries face: accept cheap imported raw materials (from the United States) to boost their domestic meat sector, or bear enormous budgetary costs to maintain national autonomy in seed production.
By 2035, according to OECD forecasts, Mexico will become the world’s leading corn importer, with a 10% share, making its marketing strategy critically important for global grain exporters.
