August 2026 began with a significant decline for Russian grain exports.
Geopolitical tensions and infrastructure disruptions in the Black Sea region are forcing experts to revise their forecasts downward. According to SovEcon analysts, August wheat shipments could fall to 3-3.4 million tons. For comparison, the previous year’s figure was 4.5 million tons, while the five-year average remained at 5 million tons.
If this scenario materializes, August will see the lowest shipment volume in the past decade—since the 2016/17 season.
Infrastructure Brake and Declining Competition
The main factor holding back exports was the suspension of operations at key hubs—the Novorossiysk Grain Terminal and the Novorossiysk Grain Plant—due to attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Additional pressure is being exerted by the complete closure of navigation in the Sea of Azov.
In the first ten days of August, Russia shipped 976,400 tons of major grain crops to foreign markets, a 22.2% decrease compared to last year.
Wheat shipments fell by 18.1% (to 801,500 tons), barley by 30% (to 146,500 tons), and corn by 2.4 times (to 28,300 tons).
Against this backdrop, analysts are noting a worrying trend: a sharp decline in competition among exporters.
The number of companies exporting wheat has fallen from 27 last season to 11 this season. The geography of shipments has also narrowed: grain was shipped abroad through only 8 ports, compared to 29 the year before.
Discounts are growing, profitability is falling
Weak export demand is hitting the domestic market. Purchase prices from domestic producers fell by 2.5% in the first ten days of August, to 11,900 rubles per ton.
In dollar terms, the decline was even more significant, falling by 6.2% (to $144 per ton).
This trend threatens the profitability of agricultural businesses. Experts warn that a prolonged price decline and declining profitability could lead to a forced reduction in wheat acreage in the future.
Meanwhile, Russian grain offers unprecedented value on the global market. The discount on domestic wheat (4th grade, FOB Novorossiysk) relative to European wheat reached a two-year high of $38 per ton (compared to $5 in August last year). In early August, the price of Russian wheat fell to $224 per ton, while European wheat traded steadily at $262, and American wheat rose to $270.
Signals from Global Markets
Despite the local crisis, external markets are showing signs of stabilization. Algeria’s latest major tender (OAIC) demonstrated that importers are prepared to accept the new economic reality.
The purchase of a 540,000-720,000-ton wheat parcel at $289-290 per ton C&F (which is $25 higher than June levels) has become an important price benchmark for the Black Sea region. This could gradually support global prices and stabilize the situation for Russian suppliers.
