Russian wheat exports in early autumn 2026 will face an unprecedented decline in external shipments in sixteen years.
According to preliminary analyst estimates, shipments in September are forecast to be only 1.8–2.3 million tons.
By comparison, in the same period in 2025, this figure was 4.8 million tons, while the five-year average remained at 4.9 million tons.
Therefore, the decline could range from 52.1% to 62.5%, which would be the lowest since 2010.
The forecast retains a wide range, but experts agree that the market is already close to its local bottom.
Infrastructure Crisis in the Azov-Black Sea Basin
The key factor behind the negative trend, which began in the second half of July, was the deep infrastructure crisis on the country’s southern borders.
Restrictions on shipping in the Azov-Don Basin, as well as severe damage to port terminals in Novorossiysk and Taman, have blocked a key distribution channel.
Historically, 80% to 90% of all Russian grain exports passed through the Azov-Black Sea Basin.
According to analytical agencies, by early August, wheat shipments were being processed from only eight seaports, compared to 29 ports during the same period last year.
Currently, grain shipments via the Black Sea have been virtually completely paralyzed on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides.
Ankara’s diplomatic efforts to resume or reformulate the «grain deal» remain under discussion, and relevant Turkish ministries have not announced a specific timeframe for decision-making.
Due to the critical situation at ports and overflowing port storage facilities, a state of emergency has even been declared in the Rostov Region.
Domestic Market: Falling Prices and Threat to Profitability
Such a sharp reduction in export capacity predictably put significant pressure on the domestic market. Due to the inability to quickly export the harvested crop, a supply surplus formed within the country, triggering a collapse in purchasing prices.
By the end of August, the price of Class 5 feed wheat in the European part of Russia had fallen by 42% year-on-year, to an average of 7,400 rubles per ton. Class 4 milling wheat lost 41.1% in price, falling to 8,300 rubles per ton.
For the agricultural sector, these are critical figures. According to market participants, the real cost of growing wheat, taking into account the increased cost of equipment and fuel, and a sowing campaign extended by inclement weather, is currently around 12,000 rubles per ton.
Current market prices are forcing producers to sell grain at a loss.
If the logistics and pricing situation does not stabilize, crop production enterprises will be forced to massively revise their structure and reduce the area under cultivation in 2027.
Land Reversal and Route Diversification
Under the current circumstances, Russian agribusiness is being forced to urgently restructure its logistics map.
According to analysts, there has been a sharp increase in shipments to land border crossings.
The main beneficiaries of this route shift are the countries of Central Asia (primarily Kazakhstan) and Azerbaijan, where grain is delivered by rail.
At the same time, exporters are developing new corridors in the northwest direction. Export volumes through Baltic Sea ports are growing, and trial deliveries are also being made through the Far East.
The Ministry of Agriculture has already formed a special task force to find effective routes. Emergency support measures, including a temporary moratorium on export duties, are also being discussed at the government level.
Nevertheless, experts acknowledge that alternative corridors are not yet capable of fully replacing the lost volumes in the South due to infrastructure constraints, but they do lay the foundation for the long-term flexibility of the entire industry.
