The decision of the Customs and Tariff Regulation Subcommittee on September 2 appears optimistic: the floating duty on wheat, barley, and corn exports will be reset to zero until December 31, while duties on sunflower oil and meal will be frozen at their August levels of 7,748 and 312 rubles per tonne, respectively.
The wording of the Ministry of Economic Development is extremely frank: the measure was adopted “taking into account the need to rebuild logistics.”
That is, the regulator removes the financial barrier where the real barrier is physical.
The South is up, the Baltic is not holding up
The industry spent August in emergency mode. After the shutdown of the grain terminals of Novorossiysk and problems with shipping in the Sea of Azov, shipping through ports at the mouth of the Don virtually froze, and Tuapse is noticeably less than Novorossiysk capacity.
The Ministry of Agriculture has assembled a special headquarters to reorient cargo flows.
This coincided with a record surge: by the end of August, over 100 million tons of grain had been threshed, 12.5% more than last year.
The south, which is harvested earlier than the rest and is located closest to the terminals, lost its export window at the very peak of harvesting and was the first to experience a collapse in prices.
The market reacted by turning to the North-West: by mid-August, the volume of applications for rail transportation of grain to the Baltic ports exceeded 5 million tons versus more than 6 million tons to the south — almost parity where previously the south dominated unconditionally.
The problem is leverage economics. The terminals in Ust-Luga and Vysotsk are focused on grain from the central regions and are remote from the southern arable land, and each alternative route is more expensive than the usual one.
Result: wheat exports in August are expected to be at a 16-year low, and SovEcon estimates exports for the first two months of the season at 4.15 million tons.
What does the exporter feel and what does the farm feel
Canceling the fee returns about 800 rubles to the chain. per ton of wheat (rate for the week from September 2 to 8 — 787.5 rubles/t). In a normal season, this is a noticeable increase in the export margin, which is translated into the purchase price at the farm gate.
Currently, the amount competes with the increased cost of freight and the lengthened railway distance.
Let us remind you that the damper rate is considered to be 70% of the difference between the base and indicative prices (the base for wheat is 18,000 rubles/t), that is, it automatically grows following export quotes — exactly when the exporter needs a margin of safety for logistics.
Simply put, zeroing compensates the exporter for part of the new logistics costs, but in itself does not create either a berth or a wagon.
Hence the caution in assessments. Analysts formulate the fork directly: if southern shipments stop for a couple of months, losses are made up in other directions; If the restrictions last until the new year, then no longer.
That is why the duty has been reset to zero exactly until December 31: the horizon of the measure coincides with the risk horizon.
Budget price
Additional revenues from export duties on grain were included in the 2026 budget at a level of about 135.8 billion rubles. Refusal to harvest for four months of peak export is a deliberate fiscal sacrifice for the sake of preserving working capital on farms and keeping the crop in circulation rather than in elevators.
It is significant that the damper has not been cancelled: in October 2025 it was extended until August 31, 2028, we are talking about a pause.
Another thing is more important for the industry: the duty was the last lever that the state could turn quickly.
Then slow instruments are used — subsidies for railway tariffs, extension of preferential loans, interventions. And the restoration of southern ports, which will determine whether the target of 60 million tons of exports remains realistic.
