The current 2026 agricultural season presents new economic challenges for the domestic agro-industrial complex, most clearly reflected in the cost of the basic food basket.
According to data from regular monitoring by specialized agencies and official statistics from Rosstat, a significant rise in retail prices for «borscht set» vegetables—as well as potatoes—was recorded between late August and early September, showing year-on-year increases ranging from 20% to 38%.
Statistical indicators for key crops
Retail price trends are as follows:
White cabbage shows the fastest rate of price growth: according to NTech, its retail price rose by 38% (to 28 rubles/kg), while Rosstat records an average price of 46.7 rubles/kg (up 35.2% from last year’s figures).
Retail prices for beets rose by 20.4–32% (to 35.4–51.6 rubles/kg), onions by 27.2–32% (to 45.2–57 rubles/kg), and carrots by 17.7–20% (to 43.5–58.5 rubles/kg).
Retail prices for table potatoes increased by an average of 30–35.3%, reaching a level of 41.5–46.7 rubles/kg.
Impact of production costs on cost price
In analyzing the nature of this price surge, experts emphasize that the key driver is the accumulation of costs throughout the entire supply chain. Rising costs for inputs—such as fuel, fertilizers, crop protection products, and machinery spare parts—along with increased logistics and labor expenses, are forcing agricultural producers to adjust their selling prices to maintain minimal business profitability.
According to the Potato Union, the average cost of potato production currently ranges from 20 to 25 rubles per kilogram, depending on the technologies used and the region.
Meanwhile, the average wholesale price has risen by 25% to 22 rubles per kilogram (with a range of 14 to 30 rubles per kilogram), allowing farmers to operate only at the break-even point.
Forecasts for Gross Harvest and Crop Volumes
Forecasts of a decline in the gross harvest are placing additional pressure on the market.
Following a near-record potato harvest in 2025 (8.5 million tonnes), the Ministry of Agriculture expects the harvest to drop to 8 million tonnes, while independent analysts predict a more conservative 7.5 million tonnes—a figure comparable to the weather-challenged 2024 season.
Wholesale prices are showing unusual resilience for late summer, failing to exhibit the typical seasonal decline over the past two months.
The Role of Retail and Market-Stabilizing Factors
Retail chains act as a stabilizing buffer for the end consumer.
As noted by the Association of Retail Companies (AKORT), major retailers are actively reinvesting their own margins to keep prices down for essential goods on store shelves.
Regulators and analysts attribute the expected easing of price pressure to the fact that the harvesting campaign is entering its peak phase. The Ministry of Agriculture is noting the first signs of seasonal wholesale price deflation (in early September, potato prices fell by 12.3% and tomato prices by 10%).
The market saturation with new-crop domestic produce and the filling of modern vegetable storage facilities during September and October should help smooth out current price spikes; however, the overall price level will remain subject to long-term macroeconomic factors.
