In the last week, Russia has seen a significant increase in the price of both sunflower oil and the raw materials for its production.
At the moment, analysts note that in the Russian Federation, prices for both sunflower and the oil produced from it are growing noticeably.
For example, over the past week, the price of oil has increased by about 1-2 thousand rubles per ton and currently amounts to 90-92 thousand. When delivering oil for export, its price reaches about 1.1 thousand dollars.
As for the price of sunflower, it has risen in price by 2-3 thousand rubles per ton over the week, currently the price of a ton of sunflower has settled at about 40-41 thousand rubles.
At the same time, analysts note that such a rapid increase in prices is largely due to the devaluation of the ruble, which is losing ground against the dollar.
If not for this factor, the rise in the price of sunflower and oil would be completely unnoticeable, many experts believe.
At the same time, the markets do not expect the price increase to continue. On the contrary, experts believe that we can expect them to decrease in the foreseeable future.
Firstly, it is a matter of world prices, which will most likely turn down in the near future.
This will be facilitated by an increase in supply on the world market, since the harvest from other countries competing with Russia should soon arrive there.
Recently, sunflower oil prices have fallen by 20-30 dollars per ton both in the Black Sea basin and in European ports. Rapeseed oil from China has fallen by 70 dollars per ton in a week, and soybean oil from India by 15 dollars per ton.
Thus, the general world situation will inevitably incline sunflower oil prices in the Russian Federation towards a decrease in price.
Secondly, an increase in the export duty on oil should cool the ardor of exporters, and, consequently, prices on the Russian market.
Until recently, the duty was at zero, but now they decided to raise it in order to protect the domestic market.
Already in December, the duty may rise to 10 thousand rubles per ton, and in January of next year, according to market expectations, it will be about 15 thousand rubles per ton, and in February it may increase even more, to 23 thousand rubles per ton.
Nevertheless, given the decrease in the supply of raw materials and the competition from processing plants for raw materials, experts do not expect the cost of sunflower to decrease significantly and quickly.
Rather, this process will be drawn out over time, and for now we will have to live in conditions of fairly high prices, experts predict.
